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Existing-home sales are projected to increase by approximately 14% in 2026, according to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS (NAR). Yun shared his outlook for the housing market during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at NAR NXT, The REALTOR Experience, held in Houston.
Yun explained that this expected growth is driven by easing mortgage rates, continued job gains, and greater stability in the housing market following several difficult years. He also forecast a 4% rise in home prices next year, citing steady demand and ongoing supply shortages as contributing factors.
"Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales," Yun said. "Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining."
Mortgage rates are anticipated to decrease slightly, averaging around 6% in 2026. Yun noted that broader economic trends—not just Federal Reserve actions—are leading to gradually lower borrowing costs.
"As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better," said Yun. "It's not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability."
Yun highlighted that regions with higher levels of new home construction—such as Houston—will experience greater improvements in affordability for buyers. Increased inventory in these areas is expected to help more first-time buyers enter the market.
"Houston is creating more home construction, and therefore making home prices much more reasonable," said Yun. "Given the job creation, buyers will inevitably be showing up to Houston once the mortgage rate goes down."
Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, presented findings from the newly released 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. She discussed how changing demographics are affecting today’s housing market.
Lautz pointed out that the typical age of a home buyer now stands at 59 years old, while repeat buyers have a median age of 62. She added that most people move primarily to be closer to friends and family.
"I call this the grandbaby effect," Lautz said. "This is a different type of buyer."
First-time buyers continue to face significant challenges; their share has dropped to an all-time low of 21%, with their median age rising to 40 years old.
"The biggest struggle first-time buyers have is finding an affordable property, and many of them struggle to save for a down payment," said Lautz. "The biggest source of pain that they are citing is high rent and student loan debt."
Despite these difficulties with affordability, real estate agents remain widely used among both buyers and sellers. Lautz reported that 88% of buyers and 91% of sellers employed an agent or broker for their most recent transaction.
Lautz attributed this trend to agents' expertise: "pricing the home competitively in a changing market, marketing that home, and finding a qualified buyer."
The National Association of REALTORS states it is engaged across all areas of residential and commercial real estate activity. For resources on navigating buying or selling processes—including written agreements or negotiating compensation—consumers can visit facts.realtor.
