Nearly five years after Myanmar’s military coup halted the seating of a democratically elected parliament, the country faces an ongoing crisis marked by violence, displacement, and international concern. Congressional testimony delivered to U.S. lawmakers this week outlined the worsening situation and America’s limited policy options.
In December 2025, Myanmar's military is set to begin phased elections aimed at restoring its image and consolidating territorial control lost since the 2021 coup. However, according to testimony provided to Congress, these elections "will not be free, fair, or inclusive; they do not represent the will of the Myanmar people and they do not present a path either towards democracy or a peaceful and sustainable solution to Myanmar’s decades-long conflict." The speaker warned that such electoral processes are designed more for international recognition than domestic legitimacy.
Since the February 2021 coup—when civilian leaders including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint were detained—the opposition has shifted from peaceful protest to widespread armed resistance. The military responded with what it calls “four cuts,” targeting food, funds, information, and recruits in insurgent areas. This strategy has resulted in extensive civilian suffering: "An estimated 85,000 people have been killed in conflict since the coup," with thousands of civilians among them due to indiscriminate airstrikes. Over 20,000 political prisoners remain jailed.
The conflict has also triggered large-scale displacement. More than 3.5 million people are internally displaced within Myanmar while another 275,000 have fled abroad since the coup. Many join approximately 1.3 million refugees—mostly Rohingya who previously escaped what was recognized as genocide by U.S. authorities in 2017.
Economically, Myanmar is struggling under regime mismanagement; its economy is now nearly one-fifth smaller than before the coup and inflation exceeds 30%. Poverty rates have doubled while food insecurity has risen eightfold—almost one-third of Myanmar’s population now needs humanitarian assistance.
A patchwork of parallel governance systems run by ethnic armed groups and resistance forces has developed across much of Myanmar’s territory as these groups expand their control. While some systems date back decades (notably in Kachin and Karen States), others have recently emerged in predominantly Burmese areas.
Operation 1027—a joint offensive launched by several ethnic armed groups in October 2023—was described as a turning point that led China to take a more active role in supporting the military regime after initially expressing frustration over transnational crime on its border with Myanmar. As resistance alliances gained ground near Chinese interests and trade routes, China increased diplomatic engagement with regime leader Min Aung Hlaing and pressured ethnic armed groups along its border.
Chinese support helped enable recent counteroffensives by the Myanmar military; however, testimony noted that "it has only managed to regain a fraction of the territory it lost since Operation 1027." Despite some recaptured areas important for trade with China—and counterattacks in Mandalay, southern Shan State, and Karenni—the military remains unpopular domestically.
Elections scheduled to begin on December 28 are expected to be limited in scope due to continued conflict and changes to electoral rules favoring pro-military parties. The National League for Democracy—which won a landslide victory prior to the coup—has been dissolved under new party registration laws introduced by the regime.
Myanmar holds strategic significance for U.S. interests due both to regional geopolitics and transnational criminal activity affecting Americans directly through scams originating from within its borders. China has invested heavily via infrastructure projects like oil pipelines connecting Myanmar’s coast with southern China; India maintains investments as well while Russia supplies arms and plans nuclear development there.
Additionally, Myanmar is one of the world’s largest producers of rare earth minerals crucial for global supply chains—resources currently benefiting China exclusively—and unregulated mining practices are causing environmental impacts that could reach markets abroad through affected seafood or agricultural products.
The ongoing instability thus presents challenges not only for regional security but also for U.S economic interests at home.
