The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released its updated estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the first half of 2026.
For the January–March 2026 quarter, Treasury projects borrowing $574 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, with an expected cash balance of $850 billion at the end of March. This estimate is $3 billion less than what was announced in November 2025, a change attributed mainly to a higher starting cash balance that was partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. The Treasury noted that if the higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance is excluded, the current quarter’s borrowing estimate would be $19 billion higher than previously announced.
Looking ahead to April–June 2026, Treasury expects to borrow $109 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and anticipates an end-of-June cash balance of $900 billion.
In reviewing past activity, during October–December 2025, Treasury borrowed $550 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended that quarter with a cash balance of $873 billion. In November 2025, it had estimated borrowing at $569 billion with an assumed end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. The actual borrowing turned out to be $20 billion lower than forecasted due primarily to higher net cash flows, which were partly offset by a higher-than-assumed ending cash balance. Excluding this elevated end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $42 billion below what had been projected in November.
Further details about financing related to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding are scheduled for release on Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 8:30 a.m.
"The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the January–March 2026 and April–June 2026 quarters."
