In the more than a year since President Joe Biden assumed office, U.S.-China relations remain on edge, and might be teetering toward a steep decline, according to a number of analysts.
“Few if any breakthroughs have been achieved on the broad range of differences between the U.S. and China,” said Paul Haenle, who holds the Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Haenle said relations have deteriorated, strategic competition has intensified and tensions heightened. He offered this assessment during a Zoom roundtable sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment on Wednesday.
William Choong of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
| The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
It included Sheena Chestnut Greitens, an associate professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Her work focuses on East Asia, American national security and authoritarian politics and foreign policy.
Greitens also served as first lady of Missouri Jan. 9, 2017 to June 1, 2018, when she was married to then-Gov. Eric Greitens.
William Choong, who also took part, is a senior fellow in the Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. His research interests include Northeast Asia, U.S.-China relations and the Indo-Pacific.
Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s nuclear policy program, also spoke during the 100-minute session.
It was the third of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2021-2022 and was recorded and published as a China in the world podcast. All four panelists said there is a growing divide between the two superpowers, with stark differences on human rights, battles over the use of technology and differences on the global stage.
Haenle said it was interesting to note that 50 years ago, President Richard Nixon stunned the world with his trip to China, in what was called “The Week That Changed the World.”
These days China and Russia are developing ever-stronger ties, while the United States is at a low point in relations with Russia, and tensions with China are evident as well.
“Fifty years after Nixon’s visit to China, U.S.-China relations finds itself at an inflection point,” he said.
Russia and China announced a “no-limits strategic partnership” Feb. 4 when Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Beijing for the Winter Olympics. Within three weeks, Russia invaded Ukraine.
That has led to China trying to straddle both sides of the conflict, Haenle said. It has said it opposes the war and stands for national sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-interference with other countries’ right to choose their own government. The Chinese also do not want to antagonize the U.S. and European nations, Haenle said.
But at the same time, it wants to stand by its new partnership with Russia, and has yet to condemn Russia for its actions. Senior U.S. officials have asked why China does not use its influence to persuade Putin to withdraw from Ukraine, he said. Instead, there are reports China may provide military or economic support to Russia.
“It’s been a difficult balancing act,” Haenle said.
Zhao said China sees NATO and the United States as the cause of the war in Ukraine.
“I have this deep impression that this war is increasing China’s overall concern about the United States,” he said. “Because China has a very different understanding about the nature of the war and the American role in the war. China, genuinely I think, blames the United States and NATO for causing the war.”
This has resulted, China argues, in a joint, coordinated effort to strangulate Russia with illegal measures including crippling economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation and political demonization. Russia, in the Chinese view, was merely trying to defend its legitimate interests, Zhao said.
“I think this reinforces many Chinese strategists’ previous belief that the U.S. is the ultimate black hand behind all of this,” he said.
The Chinese believe the United States is inherently opposed to other forms of government such as ones in China and Russia. It drives the belief that China must build its power and prepare for an “eventual contest with the United States,” Zhao said.
If and when that happens, China will need to rely on Russia, he said, which is why it is reluctant to criticize Moscow even as it provides minor humanitarian supplies to Ukraine.
China is battling internal tension as it seeks to maintain access to U.S. technology and markets while mapping a secure future for itself, Zhao said.
He said many Chinese people, including political and military analysts and regular citizens, support Russia in this conflict because they see it as a model for a Chinese attack on Taiwan. They want to see the Russians succeed, because they want China to gain control of the small island nation.
In addition they have a bleak view of the U.S., he said, which colors their perspective on the war in Ukraine.
“They genuinely believe that U.S. strategic culture is inherently hegemonic," Zhao said. "The U.S. is willing to use all illegal measures, the U.S. is willing to violate all sorts of international norms and laws and principles simply to achieve its narrow and selfish geopolitical interests. The perception is that there is something inherently evil in the U.S. strategic intent.”
He said China, which did not seem to anticipate Putin’s plan to invade, would be willing to be part of an international group seeking to help negotiate a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. But it is not overly familiar with the region, nor does it have many allies there. Also, the Chinese do not want to offend Russia or Putin by being seen as being too close to the West.
There is another element, Zhao said, which is that Putin is very popular in China, adding, he is “looked up to, admired and respected” by most Chinese, with some using the nickname “Putin the Great.”
China is paying especially close attention to the Ukraine war to see how it relates to its possible invasion of Taiwan, the panelists agreed. Choong said China is waiting to see what lessons can be learned, but he also warned people not to connect the two in every aspect.
“I don’t think you can put Taiwan and Ukraine in the same category,” Choong said, adding that Taiwan does not have the same standing as an independent nation, in his view.
Greitens said it’s too early to draw any conclusions, especially since the outcome of the invasion is unclear. It would be wise to see what Chinese scholars and sources say China is thinking about the war, she said, and that isn’t clear now.
Zhao said China also might be realizing its plans were not entirely correct.
“I think this war is making China reflect on some of its assumptions about a military operation against Taiwan,” he said. “I think many Chinese strategists have assumed China could achieve a quick military success and they assumed there will be lack of local resistance in Taiwan.”
That might not be the case. Seeing the fierce fight by the Ukrainian people might give Chinese military leaders reason to pause and reflect, Zhao said. In addition, it’s still unclear how new technologies and tactics are impacting battles.
He also believes Xi is more focused on the Chinese economy and the upcoming 20th Party Congress.
That reduces the risk of an impending invasion of Taiwan, but as Xi looks to his historical legacy, it may mean the chances of one in the future are growing.
Minor changes
Greitens said many analysts thought Biden would shift course from the China policies employed by the Trump administration. Instead, there have been only minor adaptations, she said.
“Broadly speaking, I would agree with the assessment there’s been more continuity than change,” Greitens said. “If you had asked me perhaps a year ago or 18 months ago, I might have expected the balance to be little but further on the spectrum toward change.”
She pointed to “lock-in affects” on the Biden administration is getting from its other policies in the Indo-Pacific policies and strategies. That is constraining some of its choices, Greitens said.
Haenle said China could take steps to improve relations. It has failed to do so, asking the United States to “untie the knot.”
Greitens said it might be more positive for both sides to examine choices they made in the past, but without meaningful change from China it’s “unrealistic” to expect recalibration.
Zhao said the “mainstream Chinese view, especially within the China expert community,” is that Biden administration represents a quantitative adjustment, not a qualitative one. It’s basically a continuation of past policies that reflect a consensus view in Washington, D.C. However, the Biden administration appears “more competent in many issue areas” and can rebuild alliances that could pose a greater threat to China in the future, he said.
“But I think there is also this growing agreement that the two sides are moving closer in some strategic level,” Zhao said. “They both agree they need to make more efforts to stabilize the bilateral relationship.”
China was frustrated following the Xi-Biden virtual summit meeting in November that the U.S. was dragging its feet respecting Chinese core issues, including continued ideological competition. But the relationship with the U.S. is the top concern with China, and that has only become more important following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said.
Haenle noted that Biden had offered strategic stability talks between the two nations.
“It’s certainly a very positive signal from Washington that President Biden was willing to discuss strategic stability,” Zhao said. “But it may be offered a little too late. In some cases, the horse has left the barn.”
He said China has reached the conclusion that the U.S. has declined to accept a “mutual nuclear vulnerability relationship” with China and help that to forge peaceful coexistence. China believes it must build up its material power, including nuclear capabilities, to convince the U.S. to accept that.
Nuclear arms control talks are likely off the table, Zhao said. But there are signals of some early steps in mitigating this emerging arms race, he said.
Chong, speaking from the “listening post” of Singapore, said Biden has made modifications at the margins and displayed a friendlier face than Trump. But there is very real change as the second Biden year opens, with sanctions still in place against China, U.S. and allied ships patrolling the South China Sea, plus restrictions on technology and investments.
Imagine China and the U.S. as two heavyweight sumo wrestlers locked in a combat. They are frozen in place. Chong noted.
“We’ve seen that since 2017 when President Trump came into power,” he said. “Nothing much has really changed, simply because at the domestic level, positions have hardened. We have seen growing bipartisanship in the United States against China, the threat of China. On the Chinese side, we have seen the Chinese Communist Party [CCP} going harder than hardline when it comes to being pushed by the United States.”
China believes it has arrived (as a major power) and is weary of the U.S. trying to enforce its way, Chong said. The two wrestlers continue to probe the region for a weakness to allow them to gain advantage.
The United States needs to “win friends and influence people” in Southeast Asia, he said. Most of the nations there are not aligned to either China or the U.S., and are available for partnerships. But they are wary of other countries trying to impose their view of the region, he said.
Zhao said China is aware that the United States sees it as its primary rival in the area. At some point, that may lead to “long-term competition” and even a contest at some point.
While the United States and China would likely benefit from stronger economic ties, there are hurdles. The Biden administration spoke of favoring liberal democracies in its opening days, which flies in the face of many governments in Asia.
Although there are positive signs, including shared work on vaccines and in cooperation on technology, there are still sticking points. Greitens said both sides have failed to provide enough detail in their plans for a positive economic framework.
“I don’t see the things that really are driving economic integration in the region as things that the United States are going to be able to come in and fully participate in, let alone lead on,” Greitens said. “There is economic integration and progress happening in the region, but it’s happening largely with the United States on the sideline.”
That will handicap the Biden administration, she said.
A panel discussion on China and Europe is set for April, and one on China and the Middle East will follow.
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