Talks between the European Union, the United States and China over major issues such as the war in Ukraine, human rights and economic practices are hamstrung by the basic problem that the nations don’t believe they are being heard, and no matter how loud the discussion grows, little useful information is being shared.

Three scholars during a panel discussion sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called it a “dialogue of the deaf.”

The EU-China summit, held remotely April 1, ended without significant breakthroughs, as the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment remains unsigned. How will the war in Ukraine impact China-EU relations going forward? Where does Europe stand amid ongoing U.S.-China competition? And what are the possible pathways to cooperation between China and the EU?

Paul Haenle of the Carnegie Endowment moderated an April 12 discussion on these topics and others with Chinese, European and Singaporean scholars on the key issues in China-EU relations and the geopolitical implications.

Haenle spoke with Yeo Lay Hwee, director of the European Union Centre in Singapore, Jia Qingguo, professor and former dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University, and Philippe Le Corre, a non-resident senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Haenle started the one-hour discussion by noting there have been “important shifts” in relations between EU nations and China.

“In 2019 we all remember EU’s strategic outlook label of China both the cooperation partner, but also an economic competitor and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of global governance,” he said. “Since then the areas of divergence in EU-China relations seem to have only grown. On human rights, economic and trade policy, in the areas of convergence and cooperation appear more limited today. The recent EU-China summit, which came five weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ended without any major breakthroughs.

“Two sides maintain different stances on several issues important to the EU,'' he added. "The crisis in Ukraine, Chinese embargoes on Lithuanian goods, Chinese sanctions against EU lawmakers, just to name a few,” Haenle said. “That being said, in recent years, EU-China economic ties have continued to grow. In 2021, trade between China and the EU reached 695 billion euros, and you compare that with U.S.-EU trade, which sits at 631 billion euros. That makes China the EU’s largest trading partner. Moreover, China and the EU have major stakes in many transnational issues like climate change, pandemic prevention and regional instability in places like Afghanistan, Myanmar and the Korean peninsula.”

He then asked the analysts for their views on the recent EU-China summit. Lay Hwee said she was struck by a description of the April 1 meeting.

“First, just let me say something about the summit, which I thought was very interesting with Josep Borrell, the high representative for the E.U. foreign affairs and security policy, lamented that it was like a dialogue of the deaf,” she said. “Which is sometimes the problem in some of these meetings when each one has stood firm on its position and do not really heard each other out. I think this is one of the problems that we face in some summits on the E.U. and China.”

“EU-China meetings tend to be fairly dull and lacking content, I must say. But there was something unusual about this one,” Le Corre said. “The Europeans insisted that the main topic will be Ukraine, and it was. As much as China was willing to focus on other topics, there was nothing it could prevent EU leaders Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen to focus on Ukraine. This summit, said Mrs. von der Leyen, was not to be business as usual.

“And, of course, facts about Ukraine have been shocking enough for European leaders to try to make their points. China should not, at the very least, get in the way of economic sanctions against Russia,” he said. “In that sense, the previous meeting between Wang Yi and Sergei Lavrov just two days before the summit was not great for China, with mentions of the rock-solid friendship between the two countries was seen as very offensive, particularly Eastern European countries that have been receiving millions of Ukrainian refugees. Both von der Leyen and Michel stated that China could not turn a blind eye on Russia’s actions. The EU views a growing negative public perception of China in many European countries.

“The image of China has been affected by various topics from human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, to the lack of transparency regarding the pandemic and now Beijing’s apparent support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Le Corre said.

He said the Europeans kept repeating that China holds a very special responsibility to not interfere with the economic sanctions over Ukraine. They also brought up trade figures, an unusual move, noting that the EU-China bilateral trade on a daily basis is 330 million euros a day, while Russia-China trade is only 2 million euros per day.

The Chinese, who have been describing Europe’s economic situation as catastrophic, had no reaction to that figure, Le Corre said. Instead, they insisted that the conflict in Ukraine “is not our war, and that Europe should not lead us into it,” he said.

Inflicting economic sanctions would only cause pain across the globe, a position China has maintained for some time.

Le Corre said many observers in China have been surprised with the EU’s unity on the Ukrainian war and on the pushback against Putin’s actions. They want Europe and China to have a relationship independent from that war, but he said that is unlikely.

“I think Beijing has mistaken the European situation by accusing the EU of aligning itself with the U.S.,” Le Corre said. “The strengthening of NATO is a necessity in the face of an increasingly brutal Russia. Finland and Sweden will soon become the 31st and 32nd members of the Atlantic alliance, and more will follow.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, in the midst of a re-election campaign, said NATO’s actions should not affect dealings with Asian countries, Le Corre said.

“NATO is now a born-again body, thanks to the actions of Xi Jinping's closest ally,” he said. “The anti-NATO anti-American narrative doesn’t work in Europe these days. On the other hand, there’s no reason why Europe, the world's top trading bloc, should be excluded from Asia, and it is in fact very active.”

Qingguo said the results of the summit, or lack of results, “is not a big surprise," adding, "I think EU wants to persuade China to take sides and China has refused.”

He said there are three components, in the Chinese view.

“One is that every country should abide by the U.N. Charter and not resort to use of force to deal with international disputes," he said. "In other words, it does not agree to Russia’s actions. At the same time, China believes that Russia has its own agreements, and it certainly felt the threat from the NATO. Thirdly, China believes that we should resolve this issue through negotiation and consultation. And China wants to play a role in mediating the conflict.”

Qingguo said there are sticking points. China has developed a close relationship with Russia, in part because of the presence of the U.S.

“At the same time, the U.S. has taken the increasingly hostile approach toward China,” he said. “The relationship between China and the U.S. has deteriorated over time, even after Joe Biden came into office. And then the European countries increasingly sided with the U.S. This is the larger background in which China has to make take a position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That’s the reason that China has taken the current position.

“To persuade China to give up this kind of position is very difficult,” Qingguo said. “Whether China can expect a good relationship with Europe, I think it depends not entirely on China; probably it depends on Europe’s choices. First, it needs to respect China's core interests like Taiwan. To play with the Taiwan issue is like poking your finger into the eyes of China. You know, this is an issue that has been the most sensitive in Chinese politics.”

He said China is willing to discuss human rights, but accusing it of genocide in its policies in Xinjiang “is unacceptable.”

“These issues should not be allowed to shape our politics, our relationship,” Qingguo said. “China hopes that our economic relationship, our shared interests in climate change, other aspects of global governance will help stabilize the relationship, and also we have a comprehensive agreement on investment.”

The answer is to consider the interests of both sides, he said, and for the EU to make its policy more pragmatic.

“We’re not going to balance between the China’s position with regard to Russia and its relationship with the EU but instead we should treat these two things separately,” Qingguo said. “China will try to play a positive, constructive role in mediating the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine.”

Haenle asked if China was serious about wanting to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

“Many have said that there’s really not the political willpower among the Chinese leadership to play that kind of role,” he said. “Is the Chinese leadership serious about wanting to mediate? What kind of role are you referring to that China would want to play?”

Haenle said he also has noticed that Chinese propaganda in state media for the domestic audiences “is very pro-Russian, very anti-U.S. anti-NATO,” and seems to be intensifying as of late.

Qingguo said he believes China is being sincere.

“First of all, I think China wants to mediate because it is in China’s interest,” he said. “China does not benefit from this kind of conflict. And China believes that all the parties want to have some kind of a peaceful settlement. But when is the good time for sides to sit down and talk to each other in real terms? 

"I think that probably will be decided by, first, what’s happening on the battlefield," he added. "If there is a real stalemate, then probably the Russians will be more willing to engage in serious discussion. And then it also depends on domestic politics in the U.S. and also in EU countries, whether they would like to have some kind of a peaceful settlement.

Le Corre was more skeptical.

“I think the expectations are very low because we know that China has been sending very clear signals that it does not want to be part of this war, nor does it want to be part of the settlement," he "But we are far from that, as you can see from the situation in Ukraine.

“Every day we discover new massacres and new dreadful actions by the Russian military or by mercenaries hired by Russia, which is even worse because these are not even conventional military,” Le Corre said. “Of course, the ideal situation would be for China to side with the EU. And, by the way, the EU is not following the U.S. view on this. This is this is something that’s happening to a European country that is neighboring five of six EU countries including Poland and Hungary.”

Qingguo believes China will insert itself into the conflict.

“I think somehow China has to seize the opportunity to intervene, like through mediation, to play a more active role in mediation,” he said. “And whether we can have a settlement or not, that’s not determined. I think China can have its voice heard.”

But Qingguo said China deeply resents the constant criticism from the U.S. as well as international pressures.

“And why should China give up Russia, its partner?” he said.

Distrust between U.S. and China

Haenle then asked Lay Hwee why Chinese propaganda seems to have gained intensity.

“I've noticed they’ve picked up stories, the Russian disinformation stories around secret bioweapons labs run by the Americans in Ukraine, which clearly are part of a Russian disinformation campaign,” she said. “[Like] kind of dismissing the atrocities that were committed in Bucha and carrying other stories that Russia propaganda and state media run as well.”

Lay Hwee said these stories are, in part, a reaction to accusations that China had created the COVID-19 virus in a government lab.

“Because of the deterioration of relations between China and the U.S., there’s a huge amount of distrust and the willingness to believe the other side can do the worst possible thing,” she said.

Lay Hwee said some Asian observers doubted the warnings from the United States that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. It almost became a joke when a Feb. 16 date for the attack came and went.

“I think even at that point of time, I’ve heard narratives from China coming out saying that this whole crisis in Ukraine is really being manufactured by the U.S.,” she said. “Because the U.S. wanted to stop the EU from developing its strategic autonomy because we know that in the years during Donald Trump’s administration that the EU was really concerned that NATO was brain dead and that we should really develop our strategic autonomy and all that. Now you have Biden coming in, there’s this desire to rebuild the alliance and we need to stop some of the trends towards EU strategic autonomy.”

That is why many perceived the Ukrainian war as a “manufactured crisis” that allows the United States to persuade European nations to side with it against China. It is seen as trying to create an “autocracy against democracy” mindset, and that is damaging to both sides.

“I am concerned to some extent that, hopefully, we will not see EU-China relations viewed only through the lens of the Ukraine war,” she said. “I think there’s much more in the relationship that both can continue to try and build on.”

Le Corre said the war cannot simply be set aside.

“I think it’s impacting the relationship tremendously," he sad. "All my contacts with Chinese colleagues over the past few weeks, it’s been a dialogue of the deaf, sorry about repeating that sentence, in the sense that people don’t seem to realize in China how impactful, how dreadful this war is affecting every single European country,” he said. “The pictures of people being assassinated, tortured, raped and everything has just been in everybody’s minds for the past six weeks. This is not a small issue.

“It’s very important going back to my original statement that China at least doesn’t get in the way of the sanctions," he added. "And I think that leads to other, discussions about, the possible fronts in the Indo-Pacific or in Asia that we all have in mind.”

Still, he said, other issues need to be discussed between Europe and China.

“There are many issues which the EU is willing to discuss with China,” Le Corre said. “I don’t think the door is closed. I think there would be more meetings. The relationship is certainly not as bad as the U.S.-China relationship.

“On the economic front, as we said, there are many, many things going on," he said. "There’s also the COVID-19 issue, and it seems that a number of European companies are not very satisfied with the way the pandemic has been handled for the past year in particular, and many expats not being able to go back and things like the current lockdown.”

The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment remains unsigned after seven years of negotiations between the EU and China. It likely will not be for some time, Le Corre said.

Qingguo was asked how to assure China it was not the target of unfair and unfounded attacks from the global community.

“Stop messing with Chinese domestic politics like Taiwan and also stop exaggerating the human rights situation in China … to say it’s a genocide. That’s ridiculous,” he said. “You can’t poke in the eyes of the Chinese and say, ‘Help me.’”

Lay Hwee said the relationship between the EU and China should not be viewed solely through the lens of the Ukraine crisis. Haenle asked if that was possible going forward.

“Is it practical?” he said. “Can the two sides compartmentalize their differences over Ukraine in the interest of other issues within the broader relationship?”

It won’t be easy, she said.

“I think it’s going to be difficult because I mean, just taking on from professor Qingguo’s comment on poking the Chinese in the eyes,” Lay Hwee said. “If you look at the way the West or the U.S. have treated the Chinese and the way they treat India. India has also not condemned Russia and abstained from the UN General Assembly resolution. The very different treatment shows in some way that somehow China is being targeted by the West.”

The EU appears to see its engagement with China linked to a closer alignment with the U.S. and a “so-called absolute Western unity in the face of the Russian threat,” she said.

The Chinese feel trapped.

“The Chinese are truly caught in this between the devil and the deep blue sea,” Lay Hwee said. “I think China’s no-limits partnership with Russia, I think it has some limits. I think we should try to explore that opportunity to see how the West can really bring China on board rather than push China away by this kind of very binary autocracy against democracy kind of framing.”

The Chinese appreciate U.S. leadership on global free trade, she noted and are not seeking a complete change in course, but rather some modifications.

“If the West becomes much more aware of the need to share power with the emerging powers, right?” she said. “So the real conversation, not a dialog of the deaf, is a real conversation with China and other emerging powers on how to reform the global institutions. And to really make these global institutions much more fit for purpose for the 21st Century world.

“I think if the West can be a bit more open-minded and more willing to share power and look at this relationship in a broader context of how we can really take this opportunity to reform the global institutions, I think that could be a more win-win kind of scenario that I'm hoping for, rather than just the narrow framing of autocracy against democracy,” she added

Lay Hwee also serves as council secretary at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, adjunct fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and is a part-time lecturer at the National University of Singapore.

Qingguo is professor and former dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University. He is also director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding and director of the Center for China and Global Governance at Peking University.

Le Corre specializes in China’s global rise, China’s relations with Europe and Eurasia, competition in the Asia-Pacific region and Chinese foreign direct investments. He also is a senior fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, an affiliate with the Program on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship at Harvard's Belfer Center and an associate in research with Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. From 2014 to 2017, he was a visiting fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.

Haenle holds the Maurice R. Greenberg director’s chair at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is a visiting senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. Haenle served as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama prior to joining Carnegie.

The panel discussion was the fourth of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2021-2022 and was published online as a China in the World podcast.