House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's recent trip to Taiwan sparked a series of military exercises from China, but Washington officials have indicated the ballistic missile test launches do not necessarily mean China will try to forcibly takeover Taiwan in the near future.
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl was asked if he believes China will try to militarily retake Taiwan in the next two years, according to an Aug. 8 Reuters article.
"No. Clearly the PRC (People's Republic of China) is trying to coerce Taiwan, clearly they're trying to coerce the international community, and all I'll say is we're not going to take the bait and it's not going to work," Kahl said, according to Reuters.
Steve Yates, chair of the new China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute and former White House deputy national security advisor to the vice president, recently wrote on the website 1945 that China's military exercises might be partially due to coincidence.
Pelosi's visit was originally scheduled for April, but when she got COVID-19 and rescheduled, the new dates she selected coincided with the 95th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army, 1945 reported. That anniversary might have prompted Xi Jinping to flex his military muscles regardless, so it is possible Xi simply spun his already-planned missile launches to make it seem as if they were all in response to Pelosi's visit, Yates wrote.
"The U.S. and allies should take Beijing’s war-games seriously, not so much because they signal impending war, but they are a very clear demonstration of hostile intentions and irresponsible behavior," Yates told State Newswire. "This hostility is not aimed at Taiwan alone, but also at Japan and the U.S. This is the most aggressive and intrusive coercive campaign ever launched by Communist China against Taiwan. The U.S should be concerned that China’s current leader Xi Jinping feels that this is a time of opportunity for aggression, but we should not be surprised given the Biden administration’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan failure to deter Russia in Europe."
A forcible takeover of Taiwan would severely damage the U.S. economy, Yates told State Newswire.
"Taiwan is America’s ninth largest trading partner and nearly the sole source of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips on which the smart devices depend to run our modern lives — from phones to cars to home appliances to the multitude of automated systems on which our work and private lives rely," he said to State Newswire. "Even a temporary disruption in that supply chain would be felt for weeks or months in our stores, factories and households."
The U.S. should begin the process of reducing its reliance on China, Yates added to State Newswire.
"It should be clear to American families, businesses and government leaders that the United States must begin shifting vital supply chains away from China to reliable allies and where possible, to return to the United States," he said to State Newswire.
The State Department describes Taiwan as an important trade partner, especially regarding semiconductors and other technology, despite emphasizing U.S.-Taiwan relations are "unofficial" and "not diplomatic." Taiwan produced approximately $786 billion worth of goods and services in 2021. The State Department notes it does not support Taiwan independence and opposes any changes to the "status quo" from either Taiwan or China.
Taiwan is home to nearly two thirds of the world's semiconductor manufacturers, CNBC reported in 2021. South Korea accounted for 18% of semiconductor manufacturing, and China accounted for 6%.
The Taiwan Relations Act, enacted in 1979, says the U.S. aims to maintain peaceful trade and cultural relations with both Taiwan and China, but specifies "the United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system of the people of Taiwan," according to the Congressional Record.
