Concern has been raised in the West about a period of absence by China's leader, Xi Jinping, and by recent military activity inside China. For example, we reported that Gordon G. Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-China Tech War," recently posted "Something is up in China” in reference to a possible military coup. Other media have expressed similar concerns.
Based on our own China sources, the situation is less alarming. Here is an initial assessment of how the unusual activities in China should be viewed by US policy makers:
- The military movements are not concerning. The movements, including miles-long military motorcades entering Beijing, were noticed starting about two weeks ago. The current impression is that no one in high levels of China’s government is alarmed.
- A coup is not possible. Rumors of possible action against Chairman Xi began some time in September. This included claims that former leader Hu Jintao (2002-12) called a party meeting to vote Xi out of power. As a one-party nation with no possibility of competition, any action to remove a leader would be only to benefit a small group of individuals. No such replacement would result in policy or practical changes, at least in the short term of fewer than 5-10 years. The inner circle fights, but is always unified against the world. This has been true since the end of the Cultural Revolution (1976), and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has since been structured to make such insurgencies virtually impossible.
- Internal maneuvering is almost certainly underway. CCP leaders derive power through control over the military, economic institutions, and local provinces. Jiang Zemin (1978-83) created a new internal police force—whose official duties are to protect government institutions in Beijing and across China—as a means to counter his lack of influence over the military. The new guard was led by more than 100 young military Generals, who are now a senior-level powerful political force. It is presumed that Chairman Xi is moving against this group to consolidate his power (he recently imprisoned a number of senior military and police leaders as part of his anti-corruption campaign). Xi is promoting a new group of young Generals to fill these roles. Xi also faces competition for control over local provinces and economic institutions, and has addressed this by imprisoning local officials, and through new pandemic-related “health code” controls over the entire population.
- Internal intrigue is real. Those in power below Xi assume that he will never step down. This creates a challenge for those who favor more globalist policies, and specifically those who remain loyal to former leader Deng Xiaoping who worked with President Nixon to open China to the world. One theory is that Xi is working to diminish their influence. However, China Foreign Minister Wang Yi is a member of the Deng group and accompanied Xi to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month. Perhaps more importantly, Wang left the Putin meeting to meet privately in New York with Henry Kissinger last week, who remains an icon among the Deng loyalists. This would never have been allowed without direction from Chairman Xi, and certainly would have been stopped if there was a coup.
- No clear direction is obvious yet. The current confusion is not unusual behavior for Chairman Xi, and it may be part of a ploy. Xi disappeared for 10 days in September 2012, causing speculation that he would not take power from Chairman Hu. He also disappeared in 2017, leading to speculation that he would not be re-elected. One theory, though not widely embraced, is that Xi may be displaced, in which case this will be characterized as providing “help” to Xi, who would not be removed officially for at least two years. Another theory is that Xi is creating opportunities to uncover his detractors as a means to make adjustments in his new term, or in advance of his new term if necessary.
- Concern about a return to Mao: Xi’s detractors in China’s Politburo oppose his re-election based on concern about “going back in history" to the times and practices of Chairman Mao Zedong (1949-76), who was the last person to hold the position for more than two terms and left the nation in despair.
- Concern about movement in a wrong direction: There is also concern among Politburo members about Xi’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, and deteriorating US-China relations under his reign. The impression is that Xi is working to adjust his position on these issues as a means to alleviate the concerns. For example, Xi allowed Foreign Minister Wang to meet with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister last month at the UN.
- A possible sign of softening toward the US: It is believed that Xi took a risk leaving China, even if for only 2 days, for his recent meeting with President Putin in Uzbekistan. The assumption is that this was part of his effort to demonstrate a softened position on the war by expressing “concerns," which he did not do when they met earlier in the year.
