Though military exercises by China this month were less dramatic than last year, they underscored that China can militarize the waters around Taiwan whenever it chooses, a former CIA intelligence officer told the Center for Strategic International Studies' (CSIS) China Power Project virtual panel on April 20.
“The most notable new interesting aspects of what it did in April was it was compressed exercise area yet they flew record amounts of aircraft including into Taiwan's air defense identification zone,” former CIA officer John Culver said. “And for the first time used carrier-based aircraft to enter Taiwan’s aegis in the South East area.”
Participating in the discussion "The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis Continued?: Assessing China’s April 2023 Military Exercises Against Taiwan" were Culver, nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and former CIA senior intelligence officer; Ken Jimbo, professor at Keio University in Japan and managing director at the International House of Japan/API President; Admiral Hsi-Min Lee, former Chief of the General Staff, R.O.C. Armed Forces and senior research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute; and Sugio Takahashi, head of the Defense Division at National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) at the Japan Ministry of Defense in Tokyo.
Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior fellow, Asian Security, moderated the discussion, CSIS reported. The discussion centered on China’s April military exercises near Taiwan in comparison to the exercises launched in August 2022.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met April 5 with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., a visit which drew threats of "countermeasures" from China, NPR reported at the time. Meeting in California was seen as an attempt to calm tensions, instead of McCarthy traveling to Taiwan, as he originally wanted and as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) did in August last year.
During her meeting with McCarthy, Tsai Ing-wen said she is determined to “defend the peaceful status quo” and is grateful for U.S. support that “reassures the people of Taiwan that we are not isolated, we are not alone,” NPR reported. Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), co-chairs of the House Select Committee on China, also attended the meeting.
The Chinese military began military training exercises after President Tsai's visit with McCarthy. China sent warships and 71 planes near Taiwan with more than 40 planes crossing the median line, Axios reported.
“This is a serious warning against the collusion and provocation between the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external forces,” the People’s Liberation Army said in a statement condemning the visit. President Biden has said the U.S. will defend Taiwan, and the U.S. continues to sell arms to Taiwan.
A Chinese attempt to blockade Taiwan will involve the entire regime, with civilian amplification of military and maritime security forces as a key component, Culver said.
Hsi-Min Lee said extensive media coverage was given to China’s actions in August 2020 and tension was high in Taiwan. The April coverage was less.
“So the Taiwanese people were relatively calm this time,” he said.
The patrol was held with elements of People's Republic of China (PRC) armed forces and a paramilitary law enforcement agency and called an inspection of cross-strait maritime traffic. The PRC patrolled the sea areas used by container carrier passage lines, merchant ships and fishing vessels between Fujian Province and Taiwan, he said.
No inspections were imposed, but it reflected China has the intention and capability to do that whenever it sees fit, Hsi-Min Lee said.
"It can also be interpreted that China is now demonstrating that still, the whole Taiwan Strait is under their jurisdiction and that they have a sovereign right to enforce the law. Some would say China is now or consider in Taiwan Straits is internal waters,” His-Min Lee said. He said that is legally inaccurate.
