National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the upcoming season.
According to a May 25 NOAA news release, there are 12 to 17 named storms. Reportedly five to nine of which could become hurricanes, and up to four of those hurricanes could potentially become major hurricanes.
“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in the release.
There is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, the release reported.
Competing factors influencing this year’s forecast suggest a less active season compared to recent years, according to the release. After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer following three seasons with La Nina present.
El Nino can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. While the potential development of El Nino is expected to suppress hurricane activity, conditions in the tropical Atlantic Basin may offset its influence, the release reported.
The presence of an above-normal west African monsoon, which generates African easterly waves and contributes to stronger and longer-lasting Atlantic storms, along with warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, could provide favorable conditions for storm development, the release said.
These factors align with the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, which has been ongoing since 1995, according to the release. NOAA scientists have a 70% confidence in the forecast ranges, taking into account both the suppressing and fueling factors affecting hurricane activity. The Atlantic hurricane season spans from June 1 to Nov. 30.
