A May report by the North American Electric Reliability Council indicated several U.S. regions face risks of electricity supply shortfalls this summer during periods of more extreme conditions because of high demand forecasts and low wind and solar energy conditions. These conditions have already strained grid capacity in several areas, the NERC 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment said.

According to the assessment, several U.S. regions face risks of electricity supply shortfalls during periods of more extreme summer conditions because of high demand forecasts and low wind and solar energy conditions.

Reuters reported that while Texas' resources are adequate for peak demand for the average summer, dispatchable generation may not be sufficient to meet reserves during an extreme heat-wave accompanied by low winds. This proved true in late June as production from wind and solar generation dropped significantly.

Texas is not the only area at risk. The Climate Impact Company reported central U.S. states may face energy challenges in meeting extreme peak demand or managing periods of thermal or hydro generator outages if wind resource energy output is below normal. In fact, lower wind speeds across the U.S. in June have created challenging conditions in many areas.

The southwest and western regions of the electric grid face a risk of energy supply shortfall as each area relies on regional transfers to meet demand at peak and late afternoon to evening hours when energy output from the area’s vast solar PV resources are diminished, the NERC assessment reported.

According to the Climate Impact Company, U.S. June 2023 wind speeds were lighter than normal especially in wind power generating areas. If these conditions continue as temperatures increase throughout the summer, multiple grids could face significant strains.

The midwest can face challenges in meeting above-normal peak demand if wind generator energy output is lower than expected, the NERC assessment said. Furthermore, the need for external, non-firm, supply assistance during more extreme demand levels will depend largely on wind energy output.

A recent article in The Hill highlighted some of the challenges the U.S. grid faces this summer. 

"Last Tuesday afternoon, ERCOT averaged over $4,000 per megawatt hour in real-time trading — more than double the day-ahead prices," The Hill reported. "That’s nearly 100 times what prices were the previous week, before the heat wave began. The state agency 'likely' paid power plants a billion dollars last Tuesday, BNEF found. And power customers — largely utilities and big industrial concerns — paid $1.7 billion that day."

The possibility that wind may underperform this summer is real, and, in fact, is already happening, according to Reuters.

"Recent wind power generation totals have slumped from year-ago levels as wind speeds dropped around the southern United States," Reuters reported. "In May, the total amount of wind power generated in the ERCOT system was just under 310,000 megawatts (MW), which is down 40% from the nearly 520,000 MW generated in May 2022, data compiled by Refinitiv of ERCOT generation statistics shows. In the first 19 days of June, around 185,000 MW of wind power was generated, which is down 45% from the 336,000 MW generated in the same period in 2022."

Critics of the U.S. transition toward "green energy" point out its negative effects on the reliability of the grid, according to the Institute for Energy Research.

"The major problem is that dispatchable generating resources (coal, natural gas and nuclear) are retiring far too quickly and in quantities that threaten the ability to keep the lights on, as insufficient wind and solar power are being added to replace the retirements," the Institute for Energy Research reported.

Bill Peacock, policy director of the Energy Alliance, explained the problems caused by renewables in Texas are not new, according to a Master Resource report.

"Texas’s problem with wind and solar generation has been growing for years," Peacock said in the Master Resource report. "In 2022, wind farms generated 25% of the electricity used in ERCOT. Solar farms generated 5.65%. Ten years earlier, wind’s market share was 12.25% and solar’s 0.03%. This has placed a great strain on the grid because neither of these generation sources can be counted on when needed."