Study Reveals Mexican Cartels Have Approximately 175,000 Members
A recent study published in Science has shed light on the alarming number of active members within Mexican cartels, estimating that there are roughly 175,000 individuals involved in these criminal organizations. The study's findings suggest that the most effective way to combat cartel violence is to curb their recruitment efforts, as the cartels continue to expand their ranks year after year.
While it is impossible to determine the exact number of cartel members, researchers utilized available data on homicides, missing persons, and incarcerations to arrive at a rough estimate ranging from 160,000 to 185,000 individuals. If we were to combine the members of all cartels, they would represent the fifth-largest employer in Mexico.
The study also delves into the intricate details of these cartels, including the identification of major players, their interrelationships, and the role each one plays in perpetuating violence. With approximately 150 cartels in existence, ranging from powerful organizations to smaller-scale operations, the study reveals that most of the violence in Mexico arises from clashes between the ten most influential cartels and the 140 smaller ones, as the latter are often targeted by their larger counterparts.
The level of violence caused by these cartels is staggering, with nearly 34,000 homicides recorded in Mexico in 2021 alone, resulting in a rate of approximately 27 homicides per 100,000 people. This places Mexico among the countries with the highest rates of violence globally. Furthermore, the cartels themselves experience significant losses each year, with a substantial number of members either falling victim to homicide or ending up incarcerated. According to co-author Rafael Prieto-Curiel, "the career path of cartels is very short and violent. In 10 years, 17% of people recruited by cartels will be dead, and 20% will be incapacitated in some prison."
The study also highlights the alarming rate at which cartels are replenishing their ranks. In order to avoid collapse, cartels collectively require between 350 and 375 new recruits per week. Unfortunately, they appear to be surpassing this target, as the number of cartel members has increased by approximately 60,000 since 2012. Additionally, cartel-related deaths have risen by 77% during the same period, and this figure is anticipated to grow further if effective measures are not implemented.
The findings of the study suggest that one potential solution to curb cartel violence lies in disrupting their recruitment efforts. The study posits that if cartel recruitment
