A recent study has suggested that the best way to reduce violence stemming from drug cartels is to cut down the cartel’s ability to recruit new members. In a study published in Science, the number of active cartel members is about 175,000, and diminishing that figure is the best way to combat the cartels.
The study, conducted by researchers at the Complexity Science Hub, estimated that there are approximately 175,000 cartel members. However, the cartels lose about 200 members a week to either death or incarceration. Despite these losses, cartels have actually grown in size over the years, gaining about 7,000 members per year between 2012 and 2022.
According to the study, focusing solely on policing and arresting cartel members is not an effective strategy and is leading to more violence. The researchers projected that under the current state, cartels would grow by 26% by 2027, and casualties due to drug cartels would increase by 40%. The study found that meaningful decreases in violence could occur if efforts were directed towards lowering the number of people joining cartels.
The study also highlighted the need to understand how cartels recruit new members. Rafael Prieto-Curiel, one of the authors of the study and a former police officer in Mexico City, mentioned that recruitment is likely driven by threats of violence, direct recruitment, and young people seeking out cartels. Prieto-Curiel also expressed concern over the media's glorification of cartels and their leadership, which may attract young individuals to join.
Carlos Gershenson, a computer scientist at Binghamton University, referred to the study as a "breakthrough" and emphasized the importance of addressing the root causes of cartel violence. He suggested that increasing employment opportunities for young people in regions known for cartel activity could be a potential solution.
Overall, the study highlights the significance of tackling cartel recruitment as a means to combat cartel violence effectively. By focusing on reducing the number of individuals joining cartels, significant decreases in violence can be achieved, according to the study's findings.
