Crisis Group, an independent organization working against violence and war, recently argued that a new strategy against the violent Mexican cartels is needed after the so-called "kingpin strategy" has failed to solve the issue. In a recent article detailing Mexico's "War on Drugs," the group reviewed the shortcomings of the current strategy, especially since President Biden called for the capture of Los Chapitos.
According to the article, in December 2021, the U.S. government offered a $20 million reward for information leading to the capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán's four sons, known as "los Chapitos," who have continued to engage in the violent struggle for control of the Sinaloa Cartel. This offered reward fell in line with the so-called "kingpin strategy" in the war on drugs. However, this approach has failed to reduce mass violence in Mexico, where over 30,000 homicides have occurred annually since 2017. The number of armed groups in Mexico has multiplied, reaching 543 by late 2020, mainly criminal in nature, leading to violence spreading to new areas, said the article. Crisis Group suggested that Mexico should shift away from military solutions, prioritize protecting vulnerable communities, combat corruption, and promote legitimate economic opportunities.
Crisis Group said that in 2006, former president Felipe Calderón began Mexico's militarized "war on drugs" and subsequent presidents, including Enrique Peña Nieto, continued these policies, particularly the "kingpin strategy" targeting top criminal leaders. The current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has attempted to shift the focus away from capturing leaders, but the effectiveness of this shift continues to be debated. Critics argue that while the kingpin strategy weakened major criminal organizations, it led to power vacuums filled by smaller groups, resulting in increased violence and territorial disputes. For example, following El Chapo's extradition to the US, violence suddenly increased as his sons fought his former deputy for the position he once controlled.
The article states that data, including information from the U.S. government, illustrates a link between the kingpin strategy and the fragmentation of criminal groups in Mexico. While the U.S. Treasury's Specially Designated Nationals List identifies kingpins, it has limitations as it focuses on groups of interest to the US. Crisis Group utilized data from the Center for Advanced Defense Studies to analyze the impact of kingpin captures, finding that areas where leaders were arrested or captured saw increased fragmentation, with an average of one additional group emerging in these regions. This relationship results from various factors, including weakened groups, hierarchy breakdowns, and new groups entering these territories. The article claimed that there is no evidence that the strategy reduced violence and Major cartels like the CJNG and Sinaloa continue to operate, and homicides have increased since the war on drugs' militarization and have expanded from 268 municipalities in 2010 to 531 in 2021. Meanwhile, smaller and mid-sized groups have proliferated, making targeting leaders increasingly ineffective.
Crisis Group said that Mexico's conflict-level criminal violence requires a new strategy. The proposed approach involves tailored regional action plans in the most violent regions, focusing on local agreements, better protection of civilians, and targeted law enforcement. This strategy necessitates impartial state authorities to reduce impunity and corruption. International cooperation is crucial, said the article, to disrupt the flow of weapons and funding to Mexico's armed groups. Foreign governments should support regional plans instead of ineffective kingpin strategies, offering a more promising direction to reduce violence and crime in Mexico.
