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Dr. Nolan McCarty, Susan Dod Brown Professor of Politics and Public Affairs, Princeton University | spia.princeton.edu

Study said ranked-choice voting disenfranchises minority voters

Justice

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Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), an emerging voting structure that requires voters to "rank" their choice of multiple candidates, lessens the impact of minorities' votes, as these voters tend to "exhaust" their ballots in early rounds of voting, according to a new study released by the Center for Election Confidence (CEC). The study draws on research from Princeton University Professor Nolan McCarty that highlighted the adverse effects RCV has on racial and ethnic minority groups.

In the study presented by the CEC, McCarty's research focused on data from New York City’s Democratic Primary elections in 2020 and Alaska’s Top Four Primary and General elections in 2020. Both used RCV systems that were newly adopted. McCarty said, "In recent years, ranked choice voting has been hyped as a solution to many perceived problems in American elections. Unfortunately, the hype has often outpaced the evidence. My research raises major concerns about whether RCV may work to further reduce the electoral influence of racial and ethnic minority communities."

McCarty discovered that RCV provided an advantage to majority-group voters over minority-group voters due to high rates of "ballot exhaustion". This phenomenon occurs when a ballot is no longer counted in later rounds of vote tabulation after all of the candidates chosen on that ballot have been eliminated, according to an executive summary by McCarty.

FairVote, an advocate for RCV, asserts that elections run in this manner offer "better choices, better campaigns, and better representation" compared with traditional elections. FairVote also believes that RCV will increase participation and lower the barrier for women and members of minority groups to run for office and win.

However, according to McCarty's research, evidence supporting these outcomes is "mixed at best." In his executive summary, McCarty writes: "Even if RCV elections achieve the touted features, RCV raises important questions about the impact on minority and disadvantaged voters and their opportunities for electoral representation and effective influence in election outcomes."

RCV is currently used in 62 jurisdictions nationwide including Alaska, Maine, New York City, and San Francisco, California, according to the Ranked Choice Voting Resource Center.

The CEC, previously known as Lawyers Democracy Fund, works towards increasing confidence in election results and systems. The organization conducts, funds, and publishes research and analysis of current and proposed election methods.

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