In the 2024 Global Risk Assessment published by Global Guardian, experts predict an escalation in Mexican cartel violence for the upcoming year. The annual report classifies Mexico as a "high risk" area, attributing this status to potential changes that may arise from the country's 2024 elections.
Security experts at Global Guardian, as reported by Border Report, attribute the rampant cartel violence to conflicts between factions of the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels. They suggest that another factor contributing to potential violence escalation is the forthcoming Mexican elections. The belief is that if the 2024 Mexican elections do not favor the cartels - if their preferred candidates fail to secure victory - they might retaliate with increased violence.
The Border Report article also cites historical precedent for increased violence in Mexico following attempts by politicians to crack down on cartels. For instance, after former Mexican President Felipe Calderon tried to suppress the cartels, a massive wave of violence ensued and his efforts were unsuccessful. Experts argue that Mexico’s legal and prison systems are not conducive to effectively combating the cartels.
The Global Guardian report defines "high risk" countries as those experiencing regular conflict, criminal activity or civil unrest. These nations have weak institutions incapable of managing crises effectively. This designation is second only to "extreme risk," which is its most dangerous classification.
According to Foreign Police, Mexico's constitution allows a president to serve only one term. Current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be stepping down and has assisted in selecting his party’s successor, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum. Her main opposition comes from Xóchitl Gálvez, a former senator leading a coalition of different parties aiming to unseat López Obrador’s left-leaning Morena party. A Mexican president serves a single six-year term. During his tenure, López Obrador has had disagreements with the U.S., particularly over drug trafficking and Mexico's role in it.
Global Guardian, as described on its website, is a security company with global reach. It specializes in assisting clients to mitigate the risks associated with traveling and conducting business both overseas and domestically.
