The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) has identified Mexico as one of the world's most severe conflict zones in 2024. The increase in political violence is attributed to various factors, including drug production, cartel infighting, migration, and tensions with the U.S.
According to ACLED, the future of U.S.-Mexico relations concerning drug cartels remains uncertain due to escalating cartel violence in Mexico during 2023, which could potentially intensify in 2024 due to the upcoming election cycle. The surge of violence has led to an increased number of Mexican citizens migrating to the U.S., further straining relations between the two countries. ACLED recorded 872 armed interactions between state forces and criminal groups in Mexico in 2023, a significant increase from 705 incidents in 2022. Furthermore, ACLED's Conflict Index rated Mexico as the most dangerous country globally for civilians. It was reported that Mexican migration due to violence accounted for a fifth of the record 3.2 million migrant encounters reported by the U.S. in fiscal year 2023.
In terms of elections, Mexico is set for a larger-than-usual election in 2024 with around 20,000 political positions available across the country, including a presidential seat. ACLED data indicates that cartel violence towards public officials tends to escalate during election seasons. For instance, during Mexico's last general elections held in 2018, there were a record-breaking 400 cases of violent incidents targeting politicians and local administrators. Already in 2024, several candidates have been murdered.
ACLED suggests that part of the anticipated cartel violence will be aimed at exerting political pressure on candidates running for office. However, another significant portion will stem from increasing intensity surrounding drug trafficking into the U.S., along with turf wars between rival cartels. It appears that both manufacturing and consumption rates for fentanyl are expected to continue rising in 2024. The chemicals used to produce synthetic fentanyl are imported from China, and the drug is manufactured in Mexico before being trafficked into the U.S. Despite promises from both Mexico and China to curb the flow of these substances, it seems that their efforts have not significantly impacted fentanyl production.
As reported by the Federal Newswire, other security experts, including Global Guardian, have predicted a violent year for Mexico. They designated Mexico as a "high risk" area for violence due to conflicts between factions of the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels and the upcoming Mexican elections. It is believed that if election results do not favor the cartels, they may retaliate with violence—a pattern seen previously when former Mexican President Felipe Calderon attempted to suppress cartel activities.
ACLED is a nonprofit organization founded by Clionadh Raleigh while writing her Ph.D. in 2005. The organization collects data on global violence and assesses it. In 2022, Raleigh initiated coverage of violence worldwide.
