By the spring of 2024, China had come to terms with the significant possibility of a second Trump presidency. According to national polling organization FiveThirtyEight, by May 22, 2024, former U.S. President Donald Trump held a 0.9% lead over President Joe Biden in national presidential polls, at 41.1% versus Biden’s 40.2%. Despite a guilty verdict in his criminal trial, Trump's support remained strong, reflected in a 1.7% lead according to FiveThirtyEight on May 30.

The outcome of the U.S. election remains unpredictable and could shift until Election Day. However, it is clear that Trump has a considerable chance of winning. Consequently, Beijing must prepare for potential escalation with the United States on multiple fronts and heightened uncertainty.

Chinese experts have publicly stated that both candidates are “poison” for China. They believe Biden might bring more stability but has been effective economically and diplomatically against China’s high-tech industry and diplomatic efforts. In contrast, while Trump’s stance on U.S. alliances may serve Beijing's long-term strategic agenda, his unpredictability makes him less desirable in the short term.

For Chinese officials who experienced deteriorating U.S.-China relations during Trump's first term, another Trump presidency is daunting. However, since China cannot influence the U.S. election outcome significantly, its preference between candidates is seen as irrelevant.

A second Trump term would likely see tougher U.S. stances on trade and economic relations with China, leading to further decoupling of the two economies. Earlier this year, Trump proposed tariffs of 60% or higher on all Chinese goods and a 10% across-the-board tariff on goods from all origins as part of his campaign rhetoric.

During Trump's first term, he imposed Section 301 tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese products to address “unfair trade practices.” The Chinese Ministry of Commerce called this "the largest trade war in the history of global economy." On July 6, 2018, an additional 25% tariff was imposed on $34 billion worth of Chinese products; China retaliated with its own tariffs on American products.

China lacks equal footing to retaliate due to the imbalance in U.S.-China trade and China's need for certain U.S. exports like high-end semiconductor chips. Nonetheless, Beijing will resist if the trade war escalates due to internal pressure and external optics fueled by nationalism under President Xi Jinping.

In foreign policy and security realms, China's assessment is mixed regarding how a second Trump presidency would affect them. Given Trump's perceived isolationist tendencies and cost-benefit approach to security ties with allies, Beijing assumes another Trump term would undermine U.S credibility globally—an outcome favorable for China.

China expects reduced U.S security commitments under Trump toward Ukraine and believes this could weaken NATO confidence and foster European strategic autonomy—a desired endgame for China.

Regarding Taiwan, there is uncertainty about how a second Trump term would impact this issue. While some speculate that Trump might abandon Taiwan—a notion Beijing finds incredible—Trump's previous policies saw significant shifts in U.S attitudes towards Taiwan.

Russia presents another area of ambiguity for Beijing amid concerns about potential rapprochement between Washington and Moscow under Trump—a scenario considered unlikely given past political infeasibility despite attempts during Trump's first term.

Other bilateral relations concerns include regime delegitimization implied by differentiating between Chinese people and the Communist Party during Trump's first term which suffocated discussions on global challenges like climate change.

China realizes its limited capability to counter or prevent unfavorable policies under a second Trump term effectively but aims to reduce dependence on the United States economically while pursuing parallel world orders if necessary.

Much depends on Trump's team composition rather than himself; hence Beijing closely observes potential team members' backgrounds regarding their preferences towards China while cautiously attempting outreach efforts without appearing interfering in elections.

In preparation for potential volatility ahead should Trump win again; China seeks stability through dialogues channels cooperation particularly engaging US states locally building societal ties while bracing for impacts across various domains including trade Taiwan political diplomatic relations among others