The Heritage Foundation published a comprehensive report today detailing the current state and challenges of the United States’ nuclear arsenal. The report, titled "A Nuclear Posture Review for the Next Administration: Building the Nuclear Arsenal of the 21st Century," serves as an executive and congressional blueprint to build a modern nuclear arsenal. It warns that without significant changes, the United States risks becoming a second-tier nuclear power, with China and Russia surpassing it.
Heritage’s Research Fellow for Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense, Robert Peters, who authored the report, stated:
“For far too long, the United States has ignored revitalizing its nuclear arsenal. China and Russia have expanded their nuclear arsenals to achieve nuclear parity—if not advantage—over the United States by the 2030s.
“In light of the deteriorating security environment, the incoming presidential administration will not have the luxury of spending a year writing an NPR. This special report serves as an immediate guide on how to build a nuclear arsenal that serves as a strategic deterrent.
“Inaction is not an option. A world where the United States suffers nuclear disadvantage while our adversaries enjoy nuclear advantage is a world where nuclear war is more likely. As such, the United States must embark upon a program to build and field a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal to deter autocrats and safeguard American interests.”
The report outlines several major findings:
- Nuclear weapons are considered essential for American security, deterring strategic attacks, assuring allies, achieving U.S. objectives if deterrence fails, and hedging against future uncertainties.
- China is currently the fastest-growing nuclear power globally, building approximately one hundred new warheads annually.
- Most U.S. nuclear warheads are older than the median age of Americans.
- By the 2030s, China is expected to reach nuclear parity with aging U.S. systems.
- China has constructed hundreds of ICBM silos in its Western Desert, significantly expanding its ability to target the American homeland.
- The U.S. lacks sustained plutonium pit manufacturing capability necessary to maintain its stockpile and prepare for future uncertainties.
- To safeguard American interests, it is imperative for the U.S. to build both a modern strategic and a more diverse non-strategic nuclear arsenal.
Robert Greenway, Heritage’s Director for the Allison Center for National Security added:
“The United States has not built a nuclear weapon since 1989, while adversaries like China build them daily. That is unacceptable.
“The United States must modernize its nuclear arsenal as global threats continue to increase. A 21st-century arsenal ensures effective deterrence and mitigates risks of nuclear war.
“I applaud Bob for devising this Special Report. The incoming administration needs to hit the ground running on January 20, 2025.”
