The Rising Threat of China: Insights from James Fanell and Bradley Thayer
As tensions between the United States and China escalate, Captain James Fanell and Dr. Bradley Thayer have a stark warning: the U.S. has underestimated the threat posed by China for decades.
Fanell, a former Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and Thayer, co-author of Embracing Communist China: America's Greatest Strategic Failure, argue that the U.S. approach to China has been flawed.
"We were both fundamentally challenged by what we identify as threat deflation," Thayer told Federal Newswire in an interview with the China Desk podcast. He explained that for years, U.S. policymakers underestimated the threat posed by China, believing that engagement would lead to a transformation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) into a more democratic entity.
Fanell, who also appeared on the podcast, echoed the sentiment. He described how the U.S. intelligence community was influenced by the "engagement school"—a belief that increased interaction with China would result in positive changes.
"There was a group of people that we call the Engagers...These are the people that came out of the Kissinger-Nixon visits in the early 70s," Fanell said. He noted that this school of thought persisted through subsequent administrations, including those of presidents Carter and Clinton, leading to China's admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The flaw in this approach, according to Fanell, was the assumption that China would become more like the U.S. through engagement.
"There was never any conception that by engaging with Communist China...they could change us," Fanell said. Instead of China transforming into a democratic ally, the CCP has grown more powerful and more repressive, while the U.S. has struggled to respond effectively.
How China Was Allowed to Rise Unchecked
Thayer identifies three reasons why the U.S. failed to counter China's rise. The first was the "end of history" moment, a belief that the Cold War's conclusion signaled the end of Great Power politics.
"We were really in a new era, and Great Power politics was a thing of the past," Thayer explained, noting how the mindset led to a complacency in dealing with China.
The second factor was the influence of Wall Street and other economic interests that saw engagement with China as a way to profit. "It was the idea that Wall Street and investment into the PRC, allowing China into our economic ecosystem, helping them with manufacturing...was hugely influential in creating a vested interest in engagement with China," Thayer said.
The economic entanglement made it difficult for the U.S. to take a hard line against China, even as the CCP continued to grow in power.
The third reason, according to Thayer, was the strategic brilliance of Deng Xiaoping, whom he called "the greatest strategist of the 20th century.”
Deng managed to save the CCP at a time when communism was collapsing around the world by integrating China into the global economy, thereby ensuring the party's survival and growth.
"He was able to save the Chinese Communist Party at a time where communism had failed," Thayer noted, adding that Deng's strategy has allowed China to challenge the U.S. more effectively than the Soviet Union ever did.
The Persistent Threat and the Need for Policy Change
Fanell and Thayer agree that the threat posed by China is not just a relic of the past but a growing danger that requires immediate action. Fanell emphasized that the Chinese Communist Party remains ideologically committed to global dominance, a fact that the U.S. has been slow to recognize.
"We refused to believe that they were really communists until it became quite obvious that they really were," Fanell said.
Thayer claims that China's aggressive actions, such as allowing or even instigating the fentanyl crisis, are part of a broader strategy to undermine the U.S.
"They're here to kill us. That's a point that we need to recognize," he said.
Recommendations for U.S. Policy
In light of the challenges, both men offer recommendations for U.S. policy. Thayer advocates for a complete reevaluation of the U.S.-China relationship, emphasizing the need to sever economic ties that empower the CCP.
"If we could cut them off from the investment and the trade that we give them, then they're on their way," Thayer argued.
Fanell concurs, calling for full decoupling from China. He warns that every dollar spent in China supports the CCP's military ambitions.
"Every dollar that is spent in China...it's all going into achieving the Chinese Communist Party's main goal, which is to become the global superpower that dominates every aspect of life," Fanell said. He also criticized American companies for continuing to invest in China despite the risks, labeling such decisions as shortsighted and dangerous.
Both men also stress the need for the U.S. to rebuild its military strength to counter China's growing power. Fanell highlighted the importance of "hard kinetic power," arguing that the U.S. needs a stronger navy, air force, and space capabilities to deter Chinese aggression.
"We need a secure cyber arena and domain for our critical infrastructure," Fanell stated, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to national defense.
Thayer added that the U.S. must also work to restore its ideological confidence, noting that the strength of American values and institutions remains a powerful tool in the struggle against the CCP.
"We're Americans—we are filled with the spirit of 1776," Thayer said.
