The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released its preliminary annual benchmark report for nonfarm payrolls, indicating a decline of 818,000 jobs. This represents the most substantial revision since 2009 and accounts for approximately 30% of job growth for the 12-month period ending in March 2024.
E.J. Antoni, research fellow and public finance economist at the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at The Heritage Foundation, responded to this significant decrease in job numbers.
“For month after month, this administration has released overly optimistic jobs figures, which are later revised down. The labor market is nowhere near as strong as is being portrayed. Today’s negative benchmark is the second largest in history after 2009 when the labor market was bottoming out in the Great Recession."
Antoni further noted that this benchmark comes on top of existing downward revisions to monthly jobs reports. "Comparing the initial estimates to the latest data shows that nonfarm payrolls were grossly overestimated by almost 1.2 million for a 12-month period. That’s more than a third of the alleged job growth during that time."
He also raised concerns about BLS's methodology: “Something is clearly wrong at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, given how consistently the number of jobs has been overestimated. The Bureau owes Congress and the American people an explanation as to how their statistical models have been so wildly off the mark and why they have done nothing to correct them.”
