Jonathan Czin, a former CIA China expert, has taken on the role of the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution as of September 30, 2024. Czin's career includes significant positions such as a member of the Senior Analytic Service at the CIA and director for China at the White House National Security Council from 2021 to 2023. He also served as an advisor for Asia-Pacific Security Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia.

In an interview with Brookings Senior Fellow Ryan Hass, Czin shared insights into his background and his analysis of current U.S.-China relations. "I grew up in New Jersey with a view of the Manhattan skyline—and 9/11 happened a week into my freshman year at Haverford College," he said, describing how these events influenced his interest in international relations.

Czin's fascination with China began during his studies at Oxford University when he learned about the Sino-Soviet rift of the 1950s. He pursued further education at Yale, focusing on great power politics and studying Chinese. Reflecting on his career, Czin remarked, "Studying China—and especially its opaquer facets that impinge on our national security—is akin to being an astronomer."

Discussing U.S.-China relations today, Czin noted that they are currently "at a high-water mark in this relatively new era of overt competition—but I think it will prove ephemeral." He pointed out progress in areas like counternarcotics cooperation but emphasized that these are tactical moves by Beijing rather than strategic shifts.

On China's policy decision-making under Xi Jinping compared to Hu Jintao's era, Czin observed that Xi has centralized power significantly more than his predecessor. "Xi had an opening at the Party Congress to reshape the political landscape...and he used a crowbar to pry every advantage he could from that moment," said Czin.

As for what might concern Xi Jinping, Czin suggested that U.S. elections and Taiwan's political developments likely cause anxiety for Beijing. "An anxious China is a restrained China," he stated, explaining how uncertainty over future U.S. policies could influence Beijing's approach.

Czin concluded by emphasizing that while Washington is focused on China, Beijing remains more preoccupied with U.S. actions due to perceived unpredictability and potential threats.