Matthew Zolnowski, a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center, has proposed several measures for the United States to enhance its position in the global cobalt supply chain. In a report released in September, he emphasized leveraging trade and promoting domestic production as key strategies.
"Instead, cobalt is a tale of two markets: the 'West' and the People's Republic of China," said Zolnowski. "In the former, we find almost five decades of government and industry inertia, which has only recently begun to shift. In the latter, we find an industry-government dynamism deliberately aimed to leap-ahead of the incumbency advantages of the former. In short, cobalt is one chapter in this century's sharp-elbowed geopolitical marathon, in which the West and China are simultaneously supplier, customer, competitor, investor, innovator, and security challenge."
According to RAND Corporation, China and Russia are significant players in the supply chains of critical raw materials, including cobalt. Recent geopolitical tensions have intensified these challenges. China controls about two-thirds of cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and 60 percent of global cobalt processing capacity. RAND highlights that as critical raw materials gain importance, global supply chains face chokepoints and bottlenecks, with potential coercion risks.
RAND also notes that NATO's 75th anniversary summit addressed supply chain resilience and economic security concerning critical raw materials used in military and defense applications. These materials, including cobalt, are essential for various products like renewable energy components. The natural scarcity and geographical limitations of these resources pose additional challenges.
In his commentary, Zolnowski outlines ten recommendations for the U.S. to address China's competitive edge in the cobalt market. He suggests maintaining long-term stability in minerals policy by prioritizing investments in cobalt mining development and keeping 'national defense' broad to achieve genuine resilience. He also advocates integrating government incentives towards industrial outcomes and attracting highly qualified foreign talent to national priority projects. Increasing cobalt stockpiling is recommended to ensure emergency supply.
Zolnowski further recommends positioning the U.S. government on one side of transactions to mitigate risk factors. He advises leveraging trade actions to expand access to resilient supplies through trade enforcement and policy tools. Amending reliable sources rules to support domestic production is another suggestion, along with enabling joint action with allies. Finally, he proposes exploring a 'lease to recycle' model to reduce electric vehicle adoption costs.
Besides his affiliation with the Wilson Center, Zolnowski serves as President of Greyfriars LLC, a supply chain consulting firm. His previous roles include management and analyst positions at Alion Science & Technology and JA Green & Company.
