Ryan Hass | Director at John L. Thornton China Center | The Brookings Institution website
Chinese analysts are closely examining the potential trajectory of China-U.S. relations as Donald Trump begins his second term as President of the United States. This comes after a tumultuous first term characterized by a trade war, sanctions against Chinese tech companies, and strained diplomatic ties.
A Shanghai-based venture capitalist previously expressed optimism about Trump's leadership style, suggesting that "a resolute businessman with little ideological underpinning" could facilitate deals between the two nations. However, this view was challenged by subsequent events during Trump's presidency, which saw a significant downturn in bilateral relations.
The current sentiment among Chinese analysts is largely pessimistic regarding future relations under Trump 2.0. Analysts point to Trump's prior policies and the resurgence of China hawks in his administration as reasons for concern. Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, appointed as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor respectively, are noted for their critical stances on China.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, some analysts see potential for constructive engagement due to Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy. They argue that his focus on negotiation over ideology might allow for pragmatic interactions.
Recommendations from Chinese experts emphasize strengthening domestic policies rather than focusing solely on international strategies. They suggest boosting domestic demand and fostering technological innovation to reduce reliance on foreign markets.
In summary, while there is some cautious optimism about possible positive developments in China-U.S. relations under Trump’s leadership, the overall outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and differing national interests.
