Despite the challenging weather conditions in January, the U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in February and March of 2025, managing to sustain growth albeit at a slower pace than at the end of 2024. Labor markets displayed signs of recovery at the conclusion of the first quarter with private-sector employers adding 325,000 jobs during the initial two months of President Trump's latest term. Furthermore, inflation trends appeared favorable due to reduced energy costs and a decline in core consumer service prices. "On balance, economic data for the first quarter illustrated the U.S. economy is poised to continue growing while seeing inflation return to its pre-pandemic target."
Official figures for the U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the first quarter are expected following the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) meeting. According to the Wall Street Journal survey from April 12, 2025, the median forecast for GDP growth was 0.4 percent, down from 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to announce its preliminary estimate on April 30.
In the labor market, momentum slowed down in the first quarter of 2025, with an average of 152,000 jobs added per month, contrasting with the faster growth rate previously recorded. Unemployment rates have remained stable, averaging 4.1 percent over the past two quarters. "Over the past eleven months, monthly unemployment rates have fluctuated within a narrow range of 4.0 percent and 4.2 percent."
Inflation has been easing overall. March's headline consumer price index (CPI) showed inflation at a 2.4 percent rate, which is 6.7 percentage points lower than its peak in June 2022. "CPI inflation for energy goods and services declined in the first quarter—the third quarterly decline of the past four quarters." Food prices saw a rise, with March recording a significant increase, strongly influenced by elevated egg prices due to avian flu outbreaks.
Challenges remain, particularly concerning the economic outlook moving forward. The Wall Street Journal survey conducted on April 12 indicated a 45 percent probability of a recession within the next year. This survey, however, did not take into account President Trump's 90-day suspension of tariffs announced thereafter. Financial markets reflect volatility, having set record highs in early 2025 before subsequently receding.
The fiscal policies of the federal government present another concern, particularly as some tax provisions are poised to expire by the close of 2025 and erode consumer spending capacity. The federal deficit during the fiscal year 2024 reached 6.4 percent of GDP, surpassing historical levels from prior decades. Addressing federal fiscal imbalances is crucial to maintaining economic autonomy, as noted by credit rating agencies concerned about rising national debt levels.
Efforts continue under the Trump administration to pursue economic growth with reduced inflation, controlled federal expenses, and a focus on equitable trade. Pursuing regulatory cuts and fostering domestic energy production remain integral to their economic strategy. "As the Administration implements its agenda of slashing regulations, lowering the joint burdens of high inflation and high taxes, expanding domestic energy production, and freeing up capital by reducing federal deficits, the American economy will stand on firmer footing for strong, balanced, and sustainable growth."
