Ryan Hass | Director at John L. Thornton China Center | The Brookings Institution website
Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow highlights a complex dynamic in China's foreign policy. As he stands alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Victory Day celebrations on May 9, it presents an image that may contrast with China's ambition to be seen as a stabilizing global force.
The China-Russia relationship remains strong, yet challenges persist for Xi. Russia has expanded its diplomatic efforts, engaging directly with Washington and signing a defense pact with North Korea. Xi's visit is an opportunity to reaffirm ties with Moscow even as Putin explores other diplomatic avenues.
Some analysts suggest China could leverage U.S. diplomatic uncertainty under the second Trump administration to its advantage. Beijing has been strengthening ties with Europe, Asia, and the Global South, aiming to present itself as a more reliable partner amid perceived American volatility.
China's recent actions include deals on supply chain cooperation and artificial intelligence in Southeast Asia, as well as courting European nations like Spain. However, Xi's presence in Moscow complicates these efforts and raises concerns about China's willingness to align with revisionist powers like Russia while it continues its aggressive actions in Ukraine.
Strategically, Beijing sees Moscow as essential despite potential risks. Chinese officials are wary of a potential rapprochement between Washington and Moscow but are more concerned about deepening Russia-North Korea military ties.
While managing this delicate balance poses challenges for China, Xi is not expected to make concessions to Putin given Russia's current economic struggles and limited leverage with the West.
China views Russia both as an asset against Western dominance and a potential liability due to historical tensions. The ideal scenario for Beijing is a strong yet dependent Russia that can counterbalance the West without challenging China's influence.
Xi’s visit underscores contradictions within China's foreign policy strategy. The notion that China can benefit from American disarray while maintaining credibility in Europe and Asia appears increasingly tenuous. Instead of broadening China's global influence, alliances with autocratic leaders may be narrowing it.
