The current situation in Taiwan is challenging, with the island facing pressures from China and dealing with its relationship with the United States. Richard Bush from Brookings describes China's approach towards Taiwan as "coercion without violence." This involves tactics aimed at undermining the confidence of Taiwan's people about their future, including military pressure and disinformation.
Since Tsai Ing-wen's election as Taiwan's president in 2016, Beijing has been critical of her attempts to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Although Tsai tried to assure China of her commitment to maintaining the status quo, Beijing dismissed her efforts as insufficient because she did not recognize the "1992 Consensus." As a result, China continued its campaign of pressure on Taiwan.
When Lai Ching-te became president in 2024, he recognized that progress with China was unlikely. During his tenure as premier and vice president under Tsai, Lai observed China's persistent efforts to isolate Taiwan internationally. Instead of attempting reconciliation with Beijing, Lai focused on reducing vulnerabilities within Taiwan by limiting China's influence over local politics and public opinion.
Taiwan's political scene is currently turbulent. President Lai faces declining approval ratings and challenges from opposition parties controlling a narrow majority in the Legislative Yuan. A recent Economist report highlighted that while a significant portion of Taiwanese desire to maintain the status quo, many believe unification with mainland China is inevitable.
In addition to internal issues, perceptions of American unreliability are growing in Taiwan. The Trump administration's actions have led many Taiwanese to question America's commitment to defending its allies. These concerns are exacerbated by Trump's transactional policies toward Taiwan and fears that he might use it as leverage in dealings with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
To address these challenges, there is potential for enhanced U.S.-Taiwan cooperation based on mutual needs. While America can support Taiwan’s energy demands necessary for economic growth through its vast resources, such as geothermal and nuclear energy technologies, Taiwan plays a crucial role in America’s reindustrialization efforts through investments like those from TSMC.
Continued communication between Washington and Taipei could foster technological advancements beneficial to both sides without risking hollowing out Taiwanese industries due to global demand for microchips driving AI developments worldwide.
Ryan Hass concludes that now is an opportune moment for joint U.S.-Taiwan initiatives amid increasing cross-Strait tensions fueled by China's coercive strategies over nearly a decade. Cooperation during this period may enable both nations not only to navigate present challenges but also capitalize on emerging opportunities together effectively.
