Shoppers preparing for the fall holidays, including Thanksgiving, should expect higher turkey prices this year. The American Farm Bureau Federation's Market Intel series reports that economic factors and disease challenges have driven wholesale turkey prices up by about 40%. Despite the price increase, there will be enough turkeys to meet consumer demand, and retailers are likely to offer Thanksgiving specials.
Poultry farmers are facing a combination of diseases affecting the industry, including Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV). Since 2022, HPAI has impacted over 18 million turkeys. Although detections slowed during the summer, fall migration and cooler temperatures have led to new cases in the upper Midwest, affecting approximately 600,000 turkeys in September.
AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson noted that "prices are still 32% lower than just three years ago," despite current challenges. He added that while diseases like HPAI and AMPV are devastating flocks, broader economic issues also affect poultry farmers. These production challenges may lead to higher retail prices but should not impact consumers' ability to purchase turkey.
Over the past three decades, U.S. turkey production has declined steadily while demand has only slightly decreased. This has resulted in tighter supplies and increased prices for farmers. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said that "poultry farmers have demonstrated their resiliency" despite rising supply costs, trade disputes, and avian illnesses. He assured that "turkey farmers are ensuring birds will be available for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner."
Turkey is just one part of the traditional Thanksgiving meal. The Farm Bureau's annual Thanksgiving dinner survey provides a snapshot of expected holiday meal costs and will be released on November 19.
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