The Office for Fiscal and Regulatory Analysis (OFRA) has released a preliminary estimate regarding the economic losses that Northern cattle ranches may face due to gray wolves over the period from 2025 to 2034. This announcement was made in OFRA Estimate E2025–004.
The reintroduction and protection of gray wolves have been central to policy and conservation efforts in the United States. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service classifies the gray wolf as endangered in certain areas of the lower 48 states, providing them with legal protections under the Endangered Species Act. The management of wolf populations often results in debates between environmental groups and livestock producers.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2022 Census of Agriculture, the average beef cow herd size in the U.S. is 47 cows, with most cattle operations being small-scale. Smaller herds are particularly susceptible to economic losses from predators such as gray wolves.
A study conducted by the University of Arizona in 2025 found that depredation by gray wolves could lead to a 2% calf loss and a 3.5% weight loss, potentially resulting in a $191,000 reduction in ranch property value. These losses can have significant impacts on long-term profitability and investment decisions for cattle operations.
OFRA is a division of the America First Policy Institute that provides economic analysis and fiscal estimates related to federal policies. It conducts impact assessments on regulatory and legislative proposals and is based in Washington, D.C.
