The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released its updated estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the final quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
According to the Treasury, borrowing during October through December 2025 is expected to reach $569 billion, with an assumed cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December. This estimate is $21 billion less than what was announced in July 2025, mainly because of a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, though this was partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. The Treasury stated that if not for the higher-than-assumed starting cash balance, borrowing would have been $20 billion more than previously estimated in July.
For January through March 2026, the department projects it will borrow $578 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance also at $850 billion.
Reviewing activity from July to September 2025, the Treasury borrowed $1.058 trillion and ended that quarter with a cash balance of $891 billion. The earlier projection had been for $1.007 trillion in borrowing and a closing balance of $850 billion. The difference of $50 billion was attributed mainly to a higher end-of-quarter cash balance and lower net cash flows. Without accounting for the increased ending balance, actual borrowing exceeded July’s forecast by $10 billion.
Additional details regarding financing and information about Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
"The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the October–December 2025 and January–March 2026 quarters."
During this period, assumptions about opening and closing balances impacted overall borrowing figures; notably, changes between prior and current projections were driven by shifts in these balances.
