Restoration News has published a commentary by Catherine Salgado, arguing that President Trump's 2025 Gaza deal is likely to fail. The piece highlights the history of U.S. negotiators engaging in prisoner exchanges and making concessions to hostile actors.
According to Restoration News, Salgado's October 23 commentary frames the Trump-brokered Gaza agreement as reminiscent of past U.S. peace efforts that ultimately empowered violent actors rather than producing durable security. The article contends that the deal’s core trade—the release of approximately 1,950–1,970 Palestinian detainees in exchange for the last hostages—mirrors historical swaps that freed jailed militants who later resumed attacks. This pattern, according to Salgado, has been evident from Camp David era diplomacy through the Shalit exchange and beyond. Restoration News emphasizes the commentary’s thesis that rewarding groups using violence to secure concessions creates perverse incentives and undermines long-term stability.
Reuters reports that the Trump-brokered 2025 Gaza ceasefire deal included Israel releasing 1,700–1,950 detainees, plus 250 long-term prisoners, in phased exchanges linked to hostage returns. Reuters also noted early violations and renewed hostilities, raising doubts about the deal’s durability. The commentary cites historical precedents such as the 2011 Gilad Shalit swap, where Israel released about 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, many with long sentences. Analysts warned that some released individuals later returned to militant activity.
The Wall Street Journal and other outlets cited by Restoration News point out critics' concerns over large-scale prisoner releases due to recidivism and political effects like "pay-for-slay" and public celebration. These factors are said to have helped revive militant leadership and recruitment after prior deals. The WSJ reported outrage over including long-term convicts among those freed under the 2025 arrangement and documented victims’ fears that releases incentivize future abductions. Restoration News uses these contemporary accounts to argue policymakers failed to learn from prior outcomes when designing the 2025 deal.
Restoration News describes itself as an America-First conservative news project of Restoration of America, publishing commentary, investigations, and podcasts on national security, culture, and politics. The outlet states its mission is to provide hard-hitting, fact-based reporting from a conservative perspective and influence public debate on issues like defense and foreign policy.
