The American Financial Services Association (AFSA) announced in a newsletter that new card spending data indicate higher October expenditures. This comes despite inflation and tariffs impacting household budgets, suggesting consumers may enter the holiday season spending more but receiving less value for their money.
According to the Bank of America Institute's latest Consumer Checkpoint, total credit and debit card spending per household increased in October, with holiday-related categories already experiencing significant gains. The analysis suggests that shoppers are spending more partly out of necessity due to higher prices, which have made seasonal purchases costlier than the previous year.
The Mastercard Economics Institute's 2025 holiday forecast anticipates U.S. retail sales (excluding autos) will grow by 3.6% year over year between November 1 and December 24. E-commerce is expected to rise by 7.9%, compared with a 2.3% increase for in-store sales, reflecting a consumer focus on value, promotions, and convenience. Analysts warn that inflation and tariffs mean much of this growth will stem from higher prices rather than increased volumes of goods.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), a trade group, projects U.S. holiday-season retail sales (November–December 2025) to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024 levels, resulting in overall spending ranging from $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. This forecast indicates steady demand but reflects more modest growth compared to the pandemic-era surge as inflation, higher interest rates, and tighter household budgets make consumers more price-sensitive and promotion-driven.
Founded in 1916, AFSA serves as the primary national trade association for the U.S. consumer credit industry, focusing on protecting access to credit and consumer choice. It represents lenders offering installment loans, vehicle finance, mortgages, payment cards, and other forms of consumer credit while providing advocacy, policy analysis, and compliance resources from its headquarters in Washington D.C.
