Japan, Taiwan and the United States have a joint interest in containing China’s ambitions and the three need to work together.
Adam Savit, of the China Policy Initiative for the America First Policy Institute, shared his thoughts in a Sept. 19 blog post on his research.
“As Japan ramps its military spending up to 2% of GDP, the U.S. should help supply its growing air, missile, sea and marine assault assets and capabilities and develop a joint military command composed of the U.S., Japan and Taiwan to defend the First Island Chain which is an existential question for all three,” Savit said in his post. “The U.S. and Japan should openly engage in military exercises with Taiwan, train Taiwanese troops and assist Taiwan in international forums and in seeking increased diplomatic recognition.
"Indigenous nuclear weapons may be a bridge too far for the Japanese government," Savit said in the blog. "If so, hopefully, it would be able to consent to U.S. nuclear weapons stationed on its soil as [the late Former Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe suggested and as NATO countries already do, or at least allow nuclear cruise missiles to be placed on U.S. ships and subs in the region.”
The senior policy analyst said that would require a definitive commitment from the U.S. on defending Taiwan if China were to attack as Abe called for, according to the blog.
“Given Japan’s geographic proximity to China and relative strength among our allies in the region, in some ways the question regarding the opening stages of a CCP assault is ‘what will Japan do and how will the U.S. follow,’ not vice-versa,” Savit said, the blog reported.
Japan instituted Article 9, the Renunciation of War, in the wake of World War II, saying Japan sought international peace and so would not maintain a military or use force to settle disputes, according to the report by Savit. Article 9 left Japan vulnerable during the expansion of Communism in East Asia, leading to the establishment of the Japan Self-Defense Forces in 1954 to preserve the pacifist spirit of Article 9 while setting up an independent military deterrent.
In 1960, Japan and the U.S. signed a Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, agreeing to come to each other's defense in the event of an attack. In 1967, Japan established the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, stating Japan would not produce, possess or permit nuclear weapons in the country, the blog reported.
Under the leadership of Abe and following threats from China regarding Taiwan and the increase of China’s military capabilities, Japan’s parliament passed a package of laws in 2015 that "watered down" Article 9, enabling the Japan Self-Defense Forces to be deployed abroad if it was needed to defend the U.S. or another ally, the blog reported.
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Abe suggested a nuclear sharing program, which would allow for the placement of American nuclear weapons in Japan, in spite of Japan's non-nuclear principles, Savit said in the post.
Japan and Taiwan are physically and culturally closer than the U.S. and Taiwan. That makes threats against Taiwan a vital issue to Japan's economy and political stability, according to Savit's report. The report also notes Japan and Taiwan form the northern portion of the First Island Chain, which "effectively limits the ability of the CCP’s navy and air force to challenge U.S. forces beyond the East China Sea." The Second Island Chain includes vulnerable U.S. territories such as Guam and the Northern Marinas, so if China were able to breach the First Island Chain, Japan would be isolated from help, and the U.S. Pacific defense barrier would be pushed back.
Abe called on the U.S. to clarify and strengthen its position on Taiwan for Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. to work together more effectively against CCP threats, Savit’s report said. In an April Los Angeles Times op-ed article, Abe noted the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 requires the U.S. to provide Taiwan with the military equipment and supplies “necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity.”
Abe was assassinated in July by a man wielding a homemade gun, the BBC reported. He was giving a speech at a political campaign event in the city of Nara when he was shot twice and was later pronounced dead at a hospital.
Savit reported it remains unclear whether the U.S. would intervene by force in a crisis. This is reportedly fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by encouraging China to underestimate American resolve, according to Abe's op-ed.
"The time has come for the U.S. to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted Chinese invasion," Abe said, according to Savit's report.
