Authors of a book on U.S.-Taiwan-China relations participated in a Brookings Institution panel May 1 to discuss growing concerns about China’s intentions and plans for Taiwan.
Brookings Senior Fellow Ryan Hass, Nonresident Senior Fellow Richard Bush and German Marshall Fund Indo-Pacific Managing Director Bonnie Glaser, co-authors of “U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis?”, were joined by Nick Schifrin, foreign affairs and defense correspondent for PBS NewsHour.
Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institute's vice president and director for foreign policy, thanked the participants in her opening remarks, and noted uncertainty about China's intentions for Taiwan have caused "an enormous amount of policy attention" from governments around the world. Maloney congratulated Hass, Bush and Glaser for responding "to an increasingly overheated debate on Taiwan with a book that calls for calm and informed policymaking."
"The book lays out the past, present and future of the Taiwan Strait, and appeals to decision-makers to appreciate Taiwan and its 23.5 million people, not as chess pieces in some great power competition, but as friends of the United States who share similar ideals and aspirations with the American people," Maloney said in her remarks.
“My view is that a lot of energy has been devoted to the security and defense side of that discussion," Hass said. "I think that some of the diplomatic, economic, technological and other issues have been underweight in the discussion. And hopefully, through the process of this book, we can begin to balance some of those elements."
Hass said the U.S., Taiwan and China have a fundamental interest in avoiding conflict, with no inevitability of conflict.
Glaser said she’s heard Chinese experts say that President Joe Biden’s claim that the U.S. doesn’t support Taiwan's independence isn’t matched by U.S. actions.
“My view is that we need to have a clear and consistent set of policies from the U.S. administration and that it’s really not in our interest to foreclose the possibility at some point in the future,” she said.
China has been trying to persuade the leaders in Taiwan and the people in Taiwan that unification under the One Country Two Systems formula is in Taiwan’s interest, Bush said. The people of Taiwan oppose that by a wide margin, according to Bush.
“They understand that independence means war and that if Taiwan is seen by the United States as provoking that war they can’t be confident that we will come to their defense,” Bush said.
They are pragmatic and the status quo is not perfect, he said, “but it’s a hell of a lot better than any of the other options.”
During House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) April 5 meeting in California with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen said she is determined to “defend the peaceful status quo” and is grateful for U.S. support that “reassures the people of Taiwan that we are not isolated,” NPR reported at the time. Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), co-chairs of the House Select Committee on China, attended the meeting.
China objected to the visit to California by threatening “countermeasures” and military drills when it happened. The California meeting place was seen as an attempt to calm tensions, versus McCarthy traveling to Taiwan as he originally wanted and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) did last year.
Axios reported that the Chinese military sent warships and 71 planes for military maneuvers near Taiwan, with more than 40 planes crossing the median line, in the days after the California meeting. “This is a serious warning against the collusion and provocation between the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external forces,” the People’s Liberation Army stated in a release.
President Biden has said the U.S. will defend Taiwan; and the U.S. continues to sell arms to Taiwan.
