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Caitlin Lee of the RAND Corporation said in a commentary that the US Department of Defense should resort to Cold War tactics in the rapid technological innovation race between the US and China. Lee is the Director of the Acquisition and Technology Policy Program and a senior political scientist at RAND.
"A primary responsibility of the U.S. government—and specifically, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)—is to identify and develop the technology that is most likely to advance U.S. interests vis-à-vis China and ensure the United States stays ahead in these key areas," she wrote. "To do this, the Pentagon can draw some important lessons by turning back to America's last epic technological competition with a peer adversary: the U.S.-Soviet race to develop nuclear weapons during the Cold War."
According to Lee, world leaders, including the US, can look to Ukraine's example of making use of technologies such as Starlink and the use of drones, as well as "Western weapons," to combat Russia's invasion. This tactic mirrors historical instances such as the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, where innovation determined the course instead of conventional warfare. Lee said artificial intelligence will play a key role in the modern warfare era and suggests the US should prioritize the advancement of AI technologies to beat China in the tech innovation race.
According to Lee, the rivalry between the US and China revolves around the development of AI and emerging technologies, with consequential implications for power, security, and influence. While the US prioritizes limiting technology exports to China, re-establishing supply chains, and nurturing domestic tech innovation, China strives for independent technological leadership. China wishes to distance itself from relying on US technology.
"A Cold War framing offers some useful and tangible ways to advance U.S. understanding of the nation's position relative to China and what needs to be done to maintain a U.S. advantage," Lee wrote. She also argues that the two countries, while both developing new technologies and innovating, are on "divergent paths." China is moving the industry sector and the state closer together to have more of an authoritarian approach to technology and innovation. China is also attempting to steal US technology secrets. "The United States may lag behind China in AI publications and patents, but U.S. companies have developed the most advanced and widely used large language models, ChatGPT and Claude."
According to Lee, scientists, engineers, and risk-taking industrialists are vital, and a DOD capable of discerning promising technologies is essential. Open debate, risk-taking, and freedom to explore ideas characterize the Western approach to innovation. A campaign of analysis will be instrumental in identifying technologies to gain an edge in the contest for global influence. As the US and China's strategies become clearer, exploiting technological asymmetries could determine success, she wrote.
Bill Drexel, an associate fellow at the Center for a New American Security, recently spoke with the Federal Newswire on artificial intelligence. According to Drexel, "It seems to be an increasingly understood fact that artificial intelligence will be the pivotal technology in the decades ahead, including in geopolitics. There are definite parallels to the nuclear race in that regard. There are also some important differences to state upfront. One is that nuclear technology has two applications: nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. Artificial intelligence is very multi-purpose, much more like electricity. So the ways in which it will revolutionize war, and will revolutionize economies and so on, are much more diverse. A kind of consensus is emerging among tech industry and geopolitical leaders that it will be pretty fundamental to competition in years ahead." Drexel added, "Vladimir Putin noted that whoever has the advantage in AI will rule the world. We have similar statements from Xi Jinping. There's a whole chorus of figures in open societies arguing as well that AI will be fundamental to power in the decades ahead."
