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Abigail Dahlman, research analyst at PIIE | piie.com/experts/research-analysts/abigail-dahlman

IPEF nations increased dependence on China for trade

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The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) nations, created by the Biden administration in 2022, have increased their reliance on China for trade even as the U.S. has decreased its dependence over the last decade, according to a study conducted by Abigail Dahlman, a research analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), and Mary E. Lovely, a Senior Research staff member. "IPEF members have become more reliant on trade with China", they stated.

The IPEF was initiated in 2022 by the Biden administration and includes Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam. The framework was designed to bolster supply chains between these nations and reduce their dependence on China. Its specific objectives included preparing for coordinated responses to supply disruptions during pandemics and reducing the risk of China exploiting trade as a lever to influence member nations' behavior.

The analysis conducted by PIIE discovered that in 2021 China continued to be the leading source of manufactured goods for all IPEF member countries except Brunei. It also stood as the primary export destination for half of them. Trade data from 2010 onwards indicates an escalated dependence on China among IPEF members both regarding exports and imports of manufactured goods. With increases averaging over 40 percent for imports and nearly 45 percent for exports to China since 2010 – Brunei being an exception.

Meanwhile, over this same period, there was a reduction in U.S. reliance on Chinese-manufactured goods with its share decreasing by 10 percent due to tariffs introduced during Trump's presidency.

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