A policy brief issued by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) and European Leadership Network underscores the strategic emphasis of Australia, Japan, and South Korea on fortifying "deterrence" against China and North Korea. The authors of this policy brief are Joel Petersson-Ivre, Oliver Meier, Tanya Ogilvie-White, and Rishi Paul.
Petersson Ivre is a policy fellow at the APLN with a concentration on Asia-Pacific security issues, according to the APLN policy brief. Meier serves as the policy and research director at the European Leadership Network (ELN). Ogilvie-White holds a position as a senior research adviser at the APLN, while Paul is a senior policy fellow at the ELN with a focus on nuclear power policy.
The authors' policy brief titled "Balancing deterrence with assurances – policy coordination between security partners in the Asia-Pacific," states that the Asia-Pacific region is becoming an increasing concern for Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom due to risks associated with China's assertiveness, North Korea's nuclear posturing, and escalating strategic competition between the United States and China. The joint policy brief underlines the necessity for a balanced approach arguing that "deterrence," without clear assurances, can be "destabilizing." The United Kingdom could play a supportive role for these Asia-Pacific countries in their "deterrence" strategies.
"Deterrence without clearly communicated assurances towards adversaries is highly problematic, destabilizing, and increases risks of miscalculation," say the authors. They define "assurances" as "a form of negative security guarantee; meaning that a country resolves not to use force against an adversary as long as certain conditions are met."
Regarding reciprocity, they suggest that the United Kingdom should determine which assurances from China and North Korea would be trustworthy based on previous agreements with the Soviet Union. The example of the United States and China's personal meeting in San Francisco and a developing relationship can lend more credibility to any assurances made. They propose that "consistent engagement" of China and North Korea can help prevent them from breaking agreements and elevate the repercussions if they do.
Gabriel Noronha, executive director of Polaris National Security, discussed the policy of reciprocity on the Federal Newswire China Desk podcast. He stated, "just give the US companies freedom to act like we give to Chinese companies. Allow our reporters to go report wherever they want. We're happy to have a free, open relationship if you agree to common rules of the road." Noronha, who previously served as special advisor for the State Department's Iran Action Group and special assistant for the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that China has leverage over the United States in clean energy and solar supply chains. He sees a need for the United States to reduce its total reliance on China. According to Noronha, if the United States becomes more economically independent, China will hesitate to attack Taiwan or take other measures due to their own "economic vulnerabilities."
