The NFIB Research Center has published its quarterly Small Business Economic Trends survey, focusing on the construction, manufacturing, retail, and services industries. The report indicates that the Optimism Index for these sectors has risen from the previous quarter and is above the 51-year average. In particular, small businesses in construction, manufacturing, and services showed more optimism than the broader small business community.
"Although labor pressures, supply chain disruptions, and increased operating costs have hindered small business growth over the last few years, optimism levels have increased significantly over the last quarter," said Holly Wade, Executive Director of NFIB’s Research Center. "Small businesses in the construction, manufacturing, retail, and services industries are not only optimistic but hopeful that business conditions will finally improve. Looking forward, firms in these four sectors anticipate improved sales, increased opportunities for growth, and a pro-business economic environment that enables Main Streets to thrive."
Conducted in January 2025, the survey revealed an overall Optimism Index of 102.8.
In the construction industry, January's Optimism Index reached 104.9—an increase of 7.8 points since October—ranking second among the four industries surveyed. A net 32% of construction firms plan to hire within three months—the highest hiring intention across all sectors surveyed. However, earnings trends fell by one point from October to a net negative 23%.
Manufacturing reported an Optimism Index of 106.2 in January—the highest among all surveyed industries—and saw a significant quarterly increase of 15.9 points since October. Manufacturing also led with plans for capital outlays at 27%, maintaining this level since October.
The retail sector showed improvement with an Optimism Index rise of 8.8 points to reach 100.1 but remained below other industries' optimism levels. Retailers had a net negative perception regarding current inventory levels but saw an increase in future sales expectations by 26 points since October.
For services industry participants, January's Optimism Index was at 103.1—a rise of 9.1 points from October—aligning closely with overall trends observed across all small businesses surveyed.
