Ukraine is confronting another winter of strikes on power stations while diplomats debate a new peace plan and Western governments tighten sanctions on Moscow. Ukrainian forces that hit Russian energy assets are weakening the Kremlin's finances and straining its home front.
David Arakhamia, majority leader of Ukraine’s parliament, says real security guarantees and sustained pressure are the only solution Ukrainians should accept.
According to Arakhamia, analysts anticipated another winter assault. “They knew the ultimate Russian plan,” he says. “They work on the military field, then on the humanitarian front. They try to scare people because the more you scare people, many start to move away.” He says that seven million left the country, which hit the economy hard. Russian forces scaled drone production “more than 20 times” and sometimes launched 700 drones a night. Ukraine shoots down many, he says, but “30% is a lot.”
Arakhamia argues that Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia change the equation. “Most of the money is coming from the export of gas and oil,” he says. Pipelines remain difficult targets, but refineries can be hit. “We already get the success,” he says, pointing to fuel shortages in parts of Russia. He calls this an economic and psychological strategy. “For a regular Russian, the war is in the TV box,” he says. “Once you start having problems with gas… people start to ask their political management, ‘What is going on?’”
He believes pressure is pushing Vladimir Putin toward negotiations but says Ukraine cannot do it alone. “We are moving him altogether,” he says. “Ukraine is fighting, but Europe and the US are giving the weapons, giving the money.”
He sees echoes of the 2022 Istanbul talks in the new 28-point peace plan. “This 28-point plan is very similar,” he says. That effort collapsed because Ukraine lacked binding security guarantees. “We did not sign it because the US was rejecting security guarantees, legally binding Article 5-like protection,” he says. Now he sees progress. “Having the fact that an Article 5-like security guarantee exists already, even theoretically, is a big step forward.”
The memory of the Budapest Memorandum shapes every discussion. “We gave up all the nuclear power and most of that power went to Russia,” he says. “This is a big psychological trauma.” He insists any settlement must preserve dignity. “Dignity is the key word in Ukrainian mentality,” he says. “If it is unfair, it will not be accepted by the people of Ukraine, and then members of the Rada will also not accept it.”
Arakhamia also addresses corruption concerns. He points to resignations and prosecutions as evidence of reform. “We have NABU, an anti-corruption bureau chosen and observed by international partners,” he says. “The head of the Supreme Court of Ukraine got into a corruption scandal, got arrested, he is in prison.” This is uncomfortable, he says, but essential. “Corruption exists in Ukraine. Do we do the best to fight it? Yes, we do.” He describes strict asset declarations and sees generational change. “Younger people who did not live in the Soviet Union tend to be cleaner.”
He welcomes new U.S. sanctions on major Russian energy companies and views them as a signal that Moscow misread Washington. “They were starting to feel too relaxed,” he says. He credits lawmakers who warned early that Russia would “try to sneak around the deal.”
