Ryan Hass | Director at John L. Thornton China Center | The Brookings Institution website
The European Union and the United States are facing difficulties in forming a unified approach to China, according to a recent commentary by Jonathan A. Czin, Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and Fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. The analysis is part of an ongoing discussion about transatlantic cooperation on China strategy.
Czin argues that both the EU and U.S. have moved too far into competition with China to return to previous levels of commercial engagement but lack a clear plan for addressing challenges posed by China. He notes, “Dysfunction within and between the United States and Europe is limiting their ability to compete with China. By contrast, China’s own domestic challenges—namely, its industrial overcapacity—are enhancing its global leverage and reach.”
Recent events have worsened the prospects for effective cooperation. Czin highlights that some EU governments are increasingly looking toward China as a way to reduce reliance on the United States. “At best, transatlantic China policy may drift toward a narrow set of cooperation areas—and even in those areas, it is not clear that either side has the tools it needs to cope with the challenge,” he writes.
Czin also observes that while European leaders recognize economic security risks from China, internal divisions make coordinated action difficult. He points out that discussions among EU member states have focused more on disputes with the U.S., such as over Greenland, than on responding collectively to Chinese policies.
Three main reasons are identified for why aggressive EU measures might fail to change China's behavior: persistent demand for Chinese goods in Western markets; Beijing’s experience managing trade conflicts; and potential negative effects on European firms’ competitiveness if protectionist barriers are raised.
Czin concludes that only joint efforts involving other major economies could create enough pressure for change: “All this suggests that European and U.S. economic security tools will only have the desired impact on China if the United States and Europe—along with other major economies—act together.” He cites recent actions such as Mexico’s tariffs on Asian goods but notes setbacks like Canada reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
On high-tech exports, Czin describes a shift in U.S. policy from restricting sales to promoting them: “The U.S. decision to allow Nvidia to sell its second most powerful AI chip to China underscores that shift.” He warns this could weaken existing export controls if European companies follow suit.
Securing supply chains and strengthening defense industries are identified as two possible areas for future transatlantic cooperation. The commentary mentions rising European investments in defense production but questions whether increased dependence on American equipment is sustainable given political tensions.
Czin summarizes Europe’s strategic position as one of relative isolation among major powers: “The common denominator for today’s Russia, China, and the United States is a conviction that a more coherent, unified Europe is not in their interest.” He notes that each power acts in ways intended to keep Europe divided.
The John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution specializes in research and independent analysis related to China's political system, foreign policies, economic affairs, and international relations. Led by Ryan Hass, it produces policy suggestions and organizes public events aimed at improving understanding of U.S.-China relations (https://www.brookings.edu/centers/john-l-thornton-china-center/). The center operates out of Washington, D.C., collaborates with Tsinghua University for joint dialogues, and publishes blogs, opinion pieces, monographs, and books for policymakers and public audiences (https://www.brookings.edu/centers/john-l-thornton-china-center/).
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