Ryan Hass | Director at John L. Thornton China Center | The Brookings Institution website
A new study released on May 6 finds that foreign direct investment from both China and the United States in African countries increases perceived influence but fails to generate greater public goodwill toward the investing power. The research, which analyzed over 750 Chinese and U.S. investment projects across 23 African nations, shows that proximity to such projects often leads to a decrease in local affinity for the country making the investment.
This finding challenges conventional wisdom that economic engagement abroad naturally translates into stronger soft power or positive sentiment for major powers like China and the United States. The authors argue that unmet expectations about jobs, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence undermine any anticipated diplomatic benefits.
"While proximity to a major power’s investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power. Crucially, this reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash," said John F. McCauley, Margaret M. Pearson, and Xiaonan Wang in their report.
The study highlights how both Chinese initiatives—such as those under the Belt and Road Initiative—and American efforts like Prosper Africa have encountered skepticism at the community level despite broad national popularity metrics suggesting otherwise. For example, data from Afrobarometer suggests that while China is generally viewed more favorably than the United States across Africa at large, citizens living near specific Chinese or U.S.-backed projects are less likely to favor development models associated with those countries.
Concerns cited by locals include overstated job creation promises and increased perceptions of corruption linked with opaque procurement processes or regulatory favoritism toward foreign firms—a pattern observed regardless of whether investments come from Beijing or Washington. "Sweetheart deals, opaque procurement processes, and favorable regulatory treatment for foreign firms appear to taint the image of both investing powers equally," said McCauley, Pearson, and Wang.
The report concludes by recommending policymakers focus on transparent dealmaking paired with robust anti-corruption safeguards if they hope to foster durable partnerships abroad rather than relying solely on economic leverage. The John L. Thornton China Center is part of the Brookings Institution and specializes in research related to international relations between China and other global actors according to the official website.
