An opinion piece by Ashley Tellis, the tata chair for strategic affairs and a senior fellow for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recommends actions for the United States to stay ahead of China and maintain global order, including encouraging European allies to be more prepared to defend their continent.
“This will be China’s most important event of head-of-state diplomacy on the eve of the 20th National Congress of the CPC, which shows the high importance China attaches to the SCO and our relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,” Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Qin Gang said in a Tweet.
People's Republic of China President Xi Jinping attended the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from Sept. 14-16, according to the Tweet.
Tellis also called for deepening alliances in Asia to confront challenges posed by China.
The presidents of Russia and China exchanged mutual reassurances on several key issues on Sept. 15. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his commitment to the one-China principle and denounced “provocative moves by individual countries” that have gone against China’s interests, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported. Xi stressed China's opposition to Taiwan's independence.
Tellis wrote that Ukraine and Taiwan both are viewed as having a problematic entitative status by Russia and China. Tellis said a conflict over Taiwan is the most likely scenario, which would cause a direct China-U.S. military conflict in the next decade.
Tellis called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a painful reminder that the use of force is alive in international politics. China is or will become a more dangerous opponent than Russia has been.
The U.S. can ensure that it is adequate by encouraging European allies to take responsibility for the defense of their continent so that the U.S. can direct its forces elsewhere, Tellis wrote, calling for the buildup of a “capable coalition of Asian states” to balance out Beijing’s influence.
The current network of allies “is neither mature nor flexible enough,” Tellis said, adding that the militaries of Europe's NATO members are not prepared to respond to the “geographically distant Chinese threat.”
Tellis also suggests that U.S. military capabilities are most likely to be tested in a conflict with China over Taiwan. In the piece, Tellis calls on Washington to reevaluate its policy of “strategic ambiguity” in regard to Taiwan, especially if Washington determines that separation from China is in the interest of the U.S. Washington should make it clear that military action against Taiwan would evoke a military response.
Bolstering the military capabilities of both the U.S. and Taiwan is necessary for this route. Tellis warns against the continued aid to Taiwan through weapons transfers and diplomatic support without assuring that the U.S. will defend it if China attacks, holding up Ukraine as an example. Tellis said that Russia attacked Ukraine to put off its integration with the West. Increasing American aid to Taiwan could have the same effect on China “if it persuades Xi Jinping that the bolstering of de facto Taiwanese independence must be forcibly arrested before it is too late.” The essay warns that Chinese and Russian aggression goes beyond their current areas of specific interest and represents a threat to the larger international order.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August visit to Taiwan provoked military exercises from China. Steve Yates, chair of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, told State Newswire that China's “hostility is not aimed at Taiwan alone, but also at Japan and the U.S. ... The U.S should be concerned that China’s current leader Xi Jinping feels that this is a time of opportunity for aggression.”
An editor's note on the opinion piece by Tellis says: "Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. Inspired by the work and legacy of Andrew Marshall, the founding director of the Office of Net Assessment, the Papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates."
