A panel of experts on China gathered virtually to discuss whether China is shifting its focus from economic ties to conflict mediation in the Middle East.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) June 8 panel on “China’s Rising Influence in the Middle East” featured CEIP's Yu Jie, Maha Yahya, Paul Haenle and Benjamin Ho, who explored China’s evolving role in the Middle East, and the impact it might have on the U.S.-China rivalry.
The panel discussed the theory that China is increasingly shifting its focus as evidenced by its role in Saudi-Iran normalization talks, and its interest in Israel-Palestine de-escalation and the Iran nuclear deal.
As the U.S. refocuses on the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe, they discussed how that affects the Middle East’s perception of the U.S. and China.
Haenle asked the experts how China was able to help broker the normalization agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said that discussions between Saudi Arabia and Iran had been in the works for two years, at first mediated by the Iraqis.
“So in a sense Beijing came in late to the game actually benefited from the two-year ongoing dialogue and discussion of security services and then made its way up to the diplomatic channels,” Yahya said.
She said both Saudi Arabia and Iran want to enhance their relationship with China.
“Despite the competition between China and the United States, the one area where I think the United States continues to hold considerable sway is in the military arena,” Yahya said.
Yu Jie said China perhaps is tentatively trying to provide a sense of security for the region, but the difficulty lies in its lack of a substantial military base in the Middle Eastern region. The country concentrates on low-hanging fruit, such as anti-piracy and Coast Guard supervision.
“Obviously on the economic side, as we know that the Middle East region comes across as being a very significant source of raw material supply for China,” she said.
China imports around 20% of the oil from Saudi Arabia, and Iran has been a substantial source of energy, she said. Significant foreign direct investment from China has gone into countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman.
The economic elements are coming to the digital economy, with Huawei easily able to find customers for its 5G network, Yahya said.
Benjamin Ho said he agreed with Yu Jie that Chinese interest in the Middle East is transactional, not strategic. He doesn’t think the Chinese view the Middle East the same way they do Southeast Asia. There is nothing to dislike about China since they have no territorial interests there.
He said the region welcomes initiatives from China as having nothing to reject.
“I don't think there is any mention of wanting countries to be liberal democracies or things like that,” Ho said.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, headquartered in Washington, D.C., is a think tank providing independent analysis and strategic solutions for diverse global issues, according to its website. The institution provides expertise on regions and themes, including technology, sustainability, geopolitics, and nuclear issues.
