Taiwan will need military assistance from the United States to successfully defend itself against a Chinese attack, Timothy Heath wrote in a commentary for The RAND Blog. Heath is a senior researcher on defense and international public policy at the RAND Corp.
"Taiwan's capacity to resist high-end attack is an issue of top importance to the United States," Heath said in the June 27 post. "Any U.S. military intervention in a China-Taiwan clash carries a high risk of escalation to major war. Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan's military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. Conversely, a resolute and dogged Taiwanese defense could garner international sympathy and increase the likelihood of U.S. government and public support for intervention."
Heath cited Ukraine's "dogged resistance" against Russia's unprovoked invasion and noted that the country's determination not only surprised experts who expected Russia to quickly overpower its weaker neighbor, "(i)t also elevated the importance of understanding a nation's resolve to resist aggression as a critical determinant of war outcomes." He also said that the example set by Ukraine raises obvious questions in relation to Taiwan's response to potential aggression by its "powerful neighbor."
Heath cited a Rand Corp. report he co-authored that evaluated Taiwan's ability to defend itself against a large-scale attack by China. The report examined the island nation's "political leadership and society, military effectiveness, durability (ability to withstand punishment), and allied military intervention," and found political leadership and society to be the most important.
"A strong political leadership (in the form of respected national leaders capable of commanding and enforcing the public's loyalty), a largely unified and cohesive public, and strong public support for a compelling national cause or ideology offer the most durable foundation for a resolute defense," Heath said in his commentary.
Heath noted that because of the sheer size of the Pacific Ocean and the distance between the U.S. and East Asia, it would take "potentially several months" to mobilize, transport and deploy U.S. military forces to combat a major force there. Taiwan's ability to withstand "imminent defeat" might allow sufficient time for foreign military assistance to arrive "and for international sympathy to strengthen."
Heath said that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's leadership was seemingly "unremarkable during peace" but "bold and inspiring in war." But he noted that it is "extremely difficult if not impossible" to decipher how Taiwan's political leadership might perform if a large-scale attack from China were to happen. Heath stated that "social cohesion" would be important to fight off the aggressor and could inspire many Taiwanese to rally around the country against a Chinese attack. But over time, the cost of war could cause an erosion in public support.
Heath went on to say that even if Taiwan did maintain strong political leadership and social cohesion, U.S. military intervention would likely be necessary for the nation to survive a large-scale attack by China "owing to the island's vulnerability and military disadvantages."
"A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for perhaps many months, but over time the island's vulnerability and the military's inferiority would likely take a severe toll," Heath said. "Absent a robust U.S. military intervention, Taiwan's government would be severely challenged to withstand a determined all-out Chinese attack indefinitely."
