Bruce W. Bennett wrote a recent blog post on President Joe Biden's recent "trailblazing trilateral summit" with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This meeting established a collective effort to counter threats from China and North Korea, according to his RAND Corporation blog post. 

According to Bennet, citing the White House, the trilateral summit reinforced that the three countries "are determined to align our collective efforts because we believe our trilateral partnership advances the security and prosperity of all our people, the region and the world."

The summit's primary goals include promoting information exchange, countering disinformation and cyber threats and implementing measures to strengthen deterrence, including joint military exercises, the post reported. All these endeavors are aimed at reinforcing the international order based on established rules. 

China and North Korea were reportedly unhappy with the summit. The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized the participants for forming alliances that heightened confrontation and jeopardized the strategic security of other nations. Meanwhile, North Korea issued a threat, suggesting the Camp David agreements might escalate into a thermonuclear conflict, according to the blog.        

Bennett suggested China's response was "especially ironic" given China has become close with Russia in recent months. The growing nuclear threat of both China and Russia and their growing partnership made this summit necessary, Bennett said. 

Russia has been finalizing the modernization of its nuclear power, with uncertainties arising due to its suspension from the New START arms control treaty, which has eliminated crucial arms control inspections and communication channels. Meanwhile, the U.S., South Korea and Japan are facing escalating nuclear threats from North Korea and China, the blog post reported.

China is actively expanding its missile silos and aims to increase its nuclear arsenal from around 400 weapons to potentially 1,500 by 2035. North Korea is also a concern, as it likely possesses enough nuclear material for up to 150 weapons, in addition to its intent to enhance production in 2023, the post said.

"Both Russia and North Korea have been threatening to use their nuclear weapons," Bennett said in the post. "Theirs is a dangerous practice in which they appear to be exploiting the nuclear shadow cast by their weapons to limit outside responses to their conventional aggression and provocations."

Experts on nuclear deterrence during the Cold War developed strategies to prevent nuclear war but are "insufficient" for the threats today, Bennett said. The U.S.' declaratory deterrence doctrine against North Korea from 2018-2022 stated, "There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive.” 

However, Bennett suggested this may not be enough if North Korea were to use a nuclear weapon against South Korea or Japan. If the U.S. responded to such an attack, North Korea vowed for complete retaliation in September 2022. 

Bennett said the U.S. must begin preparing, training and planning for a response to a limited nuclear attack by North Korea, according to the blog post.

China and Russia not only facilitated North Korea's nuclear program by providing technology and equipment but also defied U.N. Security Council sanctions aimed at curbing it, the blog post reported. Despite China's clear stance against war or instability on the Korean peninsula and its threats of potential attacks on North Korean nuclear facilities if they pose a threat to Chinese security, North Korea's nuclear policy indicates it would retaliate in such scenarios. 

"The irony is thus that Beijing's assistance to the North Korean nuclear program could someday be turned on China," Bennett said in the post. "Beijing will hopefully recognize this risk and take a more-positive attitude to restraining the North Korean nuclear program."    

Bennett is an adjunct international defense researcher at the Rand Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the post reported.