John Lee's recent commentary suggests that historically, China has had the power over narratives in the Indo-Pacific, but the United States may be able to respond with alliances like AUKUS, building up military strength, and advancing technological innovation to get ahead. John Lee is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.
"In recent years the CCP has developed and deployed another so-called 'magic weapon' to complement its accumulation of material power," Lee said in a commentary piece published by the Hudson Institute.
According to Lee, Chinese President Xi Jinping has previously employed a so-called "magic weapon" historically used by Mao Zedong "to achieve his 'China Dream.'" This strategy included expanding influence both domestically and internationally. Recently, the CCP has employed another magic weapon by skillfully shaping narratives in the region, particularly concerning the U.S. and China, conditioning weaker states to accept Chinese policies even when they are contrary to their national interests.
Lee outlines the five basic messages included in these narratives: "Chinese dominance is the historical norm and is inevitable; the objectives of the CCP are permanent and unchanging; a CCP-led China is fundamentally undeterrable; the party is prepared to pay any price to achieve its core objectives; and the U.S. is an increasingly weak and unreliable ally."
According to Lee, if countries, specifically in the Indo-Pacific, accept these narratives, their motivation to resist or counter even the most forceful Chinese policies diminishes, even when they strongly disagree with China's actions. China has been successful in this regard by demonstrating the United States as the "provocateur" in regard to Taiwan and intruding in the South China Sea.
Additionally, Lee said, this is the reason behind 150 countries joining China's Belt and Road Initiative because there is little incentive to reject the benefits offered by participating in a project aimed at dominating supply chains, technology, and markets across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. However, Lee notes China will gain the majority of the benefits as well as establish the narrative that "the U.S. is a declining power and China is the future."
There is an opportunity for the United States to change how things are going with these narratives, Lee said. While not as severe as Russia's, China's authoritarian system appears increasingly rigid, with the pandemic lockdowns and the refusal of Western vaccines leading to an eroding Chinese economy. Similarly, NATO and the US have banded together, viewing China as an authoritarian threat. This shift has halted China's narrative of smaller democratic countries accepting China as the all-powerful dominant nation while also blaming President Xi.
According to Lee, the United States' decline and China's advancement may be exaggerated in the eyes of the Indo-Pacific. Lee said the AUKUS partnership between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom is important for American economic and military growth and for maintaining allies in the Indo-Pacific region. By taking the lead in innovation and continuing with strong alliances, the "U.S. can credibly promote its preferred narrative that we still exist in an American rather than a Chinese century," said Lee.
