Cy McGeady and Gracelin Baskaran authored a commentary piece for the Center on Strategic and International Studies and said U.S. policy should support export bans on rare mineral production to reduce dependence on China's industry. McGeady is an associate fellow for the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS, and Baskaran is a research director and senior fellow for the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS.

"The single most important strategic objective for the United States in relation to minerals policy is reducing reliance on minerals processing capacity in China," they wrote.

According to McGeady and Baskaran, Malaysia has recently gained international attention for its efforts to impose restrictions on the export of unprocessed rare earth elements, joining a growing global trend that includes countries like Indonesia, Ghana, Zimbabwe and Namibia, all of which have implemented similar raw material export bans in recent years. The primary strategic goal for the U.S. in this context is reducing its dependence on China's mineral processing capacity, which currently serves as the primary destination for raw mineral exports. By implementing export bans, countries can stimulate the establishment of processing facilities within their borders, enabling them to capture a larger portion of the value chain and promoting the decentralization of processing capacity, which is presently heavily concentrated in China. U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized the importance of both advancing U.S. interests and fostering cooperation with producer nations to achieve mutual benefits in this regard.

The authors used the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as an example. Currently, the DRC has no export ban in place and is a perfect example of a country where the U.S. could introduce more "domestic processing capacity" so as not to be completely reliant on China. Last year, the DRC exported $4.4 billion of cobalt; all went to China.

According to the authors, Namibia is a good example of a country with an export ban that aligns with the "new Washington Consensus." Namibia boasts an extensive and diversified reserve of critical minerals. Notably, its Lofdal heavy rare earth operation yields an annual output of 2,000 tons of rare earth oxides, featuring substantial deposits of high-value heavy rare earth metals crucial for national security applications, including defense systems, lasers, electronics and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, Namibia claims the world's largest uranium reserves, totaling 470,100 tons, which holds significant potential for supporting a potential nuclear renaissance in the United States, particularly in small modular reactor technology. The country also possesses substantial copper reserves, ranking as its third-largest export in 2021, significant cobalt reserves with notable export volumes, substantial zinc production capabilities and fluorspar reserves. Given Namibia's diverse and resource-rich profile and its reputation as one of Africa's most politically stable and well-governed nations, it stands as an ideal candidate to foster the growth of an emerging industrial processing ecosystem. The United States, equipped with the necessary capital and technical expertise, could play a pivotal role in expanding Namibia's capacity to harness its resources effectively, aligning with the objectives of the ban on unprocessed critical minerals.

According to McGeady and Baskaran, the example of Namibia shows how export bans can work with U.S. policy. The authors said, "Distributing critical mineral supply chains is arguably the greatest geoeconomic challenge of the energy transition era, but the proliferation of raw material export bans in key mining jurisdictions and coincident expansion of processing capacity presents the United States with the opportunity to secure that key strategic objective."