A Center for a New American Security (CNAS) report said China has intensified pressure on Taiwan through military and non-military tactics in the gray zone, prompting a need for effective response strategies from policymakers in Washington and Taipei. Jacob Stokes published the December 2023 report for CNAS.
According to his bio page on the CNAS website, Jacob Stokes is a senior fellow for the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. He previously served in the White House on the national security staff of then-Vice President Joe Biden, where Stokes was senior advisor to the national security advisor as well as acting special advisor to the vice president for Asia policy.
Stokes refers to the "gray zone" as the "actions that fall into the space between, on one side, peace and, on the other, full-scale kinetic war." China has advanced the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the point of putting pressure on Taiwan while staying out of any real conflict. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported a new record of 103 PLA flights in September 2023, with 40 entering Taiwan's ADIZ or crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait. "Incursions now feature a wider variety of aircraft flying different routes, including more circumnavigations completely around Taiwan and crossings of the median line," the report reads. Additionally, China has increased military pressure using uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), with a significant incident occurring in September 2022 when a UAV crossed the median line for the first time.
China takes part in large-scale military exercises in international waters that are technically not against any laws but are intended to intimidate. China may employ non-military gray zone tactics, such as cyberattacks, economic coercion, and disinformation, to undermine Taiwan's security. The multifaceted approach serves various purposes, including asserting sovereignty over Taiwan, pressuring and destabilizing Taiwan, intimidating potential allies, improving PLA capabilities, and gradually encroaching on Taiwan. Despite the risks and economic implications for China, these operations create challenges for Taiwan and impact geopolitical relationships in the region.
The report offers policy recommendations to deal with China's incursions. The U.S. and its allies should make detailed assessments of what the PLA is doing and discern high-impact activities for direct counteraction, medium-impact actions for novel asymmetric responses, and low-impact behaviors to avoid unnecessary resource allocation. Improving tracking and information sharing is also necessary. Policymakers should enhance Taiwan's resilience in critical sectors, strengthen its military capabilities through defense spending and troop training, clarify response thresholds, and collaborate on innovative responses. Shaping the narrative on China's gray zone activities is important as well.
