Dmitri Alperovitch is the co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator. He serves on the Department of Homeland Security Advisory Council and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency's Cyber Safety Review Board. His forthcoming book is titled “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.”
Federal Newswire
When did you begin to see cybersecurity issues break into the mainstream?
Dmitri Alperovitch
…A particularly pivotal moment was in 2010 when I got a call from this [then] tiny company called Google in an investigation I led called Operation Aurora. That was the first time the public really woke up to the fact that China in particular, and later on other nation states as well, were … breaking into private companies and stealing intellectual property and trade secrets–really waging economic warfare.
I was starting to do a lot of investigations into various nation states, first China, then North Korea, then Iran and Russia. Over the course of a number of years, I realized that this was just a massive problem, and I coined this phrase that is now often repeated by government officials, that we don't actually have a cyber problem, we have a China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea problem.
Now we're seeing in many areas like batteries, electric vehicles, and even hypersonics, the Chinese are ahead of us, even though they've stolen huge amounts of IP in all these areas and many others. Now we're finally waking up to this threat, but it's really frustrating that it has taken us so long.
Federal Newswire
Americans tend to think we have to be either in a state of economic engagement or competition with a country, but is your assessment that we are currently in both states with China?
Dmitri Alperovitch
Absolutely. I think Americans by nature are very optimistic people, and partly probably because of my Russian background, I tend to be more pessimistic than optimistic.
I don't assume out of the gate that it is a natural course of things that we would just always win. I believe we actually need to do a lot of hard work to make sure that we do win. Over the almost 250 year history of this country we've been very lucky. We've become the world's superpower, but it hasn't just been luck.
Federal Newswire
What are the differences you’ve noticed between public and private sector approaches to emerging technologies?
Dmitri Alperovitch
I think culture plays a huge role in it … thinking that trade is the way to solve all problems is not the way that the rest of the world may look at things. Particularly the adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea certainly don't. They view that actually as an opportunity to get leverage over us. The Chinese are very clear about this strategy, which is to make us much more dependent on them, reduce their dependence on us, and give them a freer hand in their region and beyond.
I believe their ultimate goal, of course, is to take Taiwan as President Xi has said on many occasions, including his New Year speech just a couple of days ago. The key to that is trying to deter the United States from intervening on behalf of the Taiwanese.
They think that part of that strategy is making us so dependent on them economically we won't dare to have a huge global depression as a result of a conflict. We won’t intervene, and we'll just let them walk into Taiwan without trying to save the Taiwanese. That's something that they've been focused on for many years.
We have an ideological struggle regardless of whether you think it's communist versus capitalism. Obviously China is not quite the communist country by Marxist Leninist standards that we would accept, but clearly it's an authoritarian regime versus a democratic regime. We have a major regional flashpoint during the first couple of decades of Cold War One. There was a real fear that the United States and Soviet Union go to war over West Berlin and then later Cuba as well. We have that clearly in Taiwan today and the South China Sea.
In terms of differences, the one thing that critics always cite for the one reason we don't have a Cold War is because we have this much greater economic interdependence with China.
The other thing that often gets cited is, well, we don't have proxy wars or very limited proxy wars between us and China. We don't have Korea or Vietnam, and that's certainly the case. I don't think Ukraine is a proxy war between America and China. I think it's a conflict that Russia really is driving, and China would prefer it not happen at all.
Federal Newswire
Do you believe the US should adopt a principle of reciprocity with China?
Dmitri Alperovitch
[Yes,] reciprocity is critical, not just from a fairness perspective–that you can't have free trade without fair trade. Without rules-based trade where you penalize malicious behavior that undermines American workers and companies to create an even playing field, there is very limited opportunity for American companies to invest in China without the Chinese taking over your IP or without setting up these joint ventures where they own 51% of the company.
Why would we not have the same rules for Chinese investments here? Why would we let them buy American companies?
I cite numerous examples in my new book where, not only through cyber espionage but through direct buyouts, they have destroyed American industries like the rare earth industries. For example, there was a processing plant that we had throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s that we let them purchase. They promptly shut it down and transferred all the jobs and all the IP to China, leaving us with no processing of rare earth capability today.
Look at this TikTok debate. Why would we let TikTok in when Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms are not available in China? There's a very basic fairness question there
I believe TikTok is a media company. Based on its own self-admittance, it reaches half of the American population.
When Rupert Murdoch, an Australian, wanted to buy the Fox Network, he was prevented from doing so until he became an American citizen, because even as a citizen of an allied country he was not allowed to own a major network that reached millions of American households as a foreign citizen.
Even though the content on TikTok is user-generated, there's no question the Chinese company clearly has ties with the CCP. The Chinese Communist Party has moderation rights in terms of what you see, how you see it, and what you don't see, which is also as important on TikTok.
We [also] have media concentration rules in this country, where even as an American citizen, you cannot buy TV stations that will reach more than, I think, 40% of the American population. And here you have Chinese companies self-admittedly saying they reach half of the American population.
The Chinese, of course, should have never been let into the WTO. I think that's been one of the cardinal sins that we let them into this organization which is essentially a gentleman's trading club where you expect that everyone will abide by the rules. The Chinese went into it making commitments that they never then followed up on and then basically undermined it from within.
Federal Newswire
Is there a role for international standard setting or international bodies to abate the Chinese?
Dmitri Alperovitch
Yeah…I travel a lot around the region. I was just recently in Taiwan, and the recitation of the China threat has grown massively in the past 10 years, and we have Xi Jinping to thank for that.
He has abandoned the policy of quiet buildup and lack of overt belligerence to become very overt in terms of his goals. [Look at] what he's doing to the Philippines, the South China Sea, Taiwan. Coercion against South Koreans and Japanese is triggering a backlash that we can take advantage of.
Europe is in a different position. France and Germany in particular I don't think are going to be our natural allies for a long time on this issue, but that's fine. They're not Pacific powers. I mean yes, France has some possessions in the Pacific, but they're primarily European powers. But the center of gravity here is in the Indo-Pacific. Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, all of those countries are absolutely vital, and including Indonesia, which has the fourth largest population in the world.
I think there's a lot of opportunities to bring other countries onboard. Even in Europe, you look at the Eastern Europeans. They have a much worse view on China than the Western Europeans.
Talk to Lithuania, Estonia, or the Czech Republic; they're not thrilled with what China is doing. They're actually very aggressive on the Taiwan issues, even Poland is. There are opportunities to pick and choose coalitions and slowly but surely get people on board. Particularly people that have been faced with the Chinese aggression either in the trade or diplomatic sphere, as they've become more belligerent, more confident, and I argue overconfident in their abilities.
Federal Newswire
What is the main theme of your new book?
Dmitri Alperovitch
The overarching point I make in the book is that this century has every chance to remain an American Century. We've got all of the advantages.
China is not destined to be the world power. We're finally realizing that as we're seeing their economy start to stagnate, and we're seeing [their] population undergo, over the next 30-40 years, a dramatic collapse.
They're facing a middle-income trap. Things are really getting dire in China, so all we have to do is outlast them, and make sure that we avoid this hot conflict.
If we have a war with China, let's say over Taiwan, regardless of the outcome, it’s going to be a complete disaster. We’re going to lose tens of thousands of Americans, maybe even more, We’re going to have global depression almost instantaneously. This is something we absolutely have to avoid. Obviously the only thing worse than fighting a war with China and winning is fighting a war with China and losing.
The best thing is to deter them and let them stagnate on their own, because I think if we manage to implement the strategies that I talk about in the book, we can outlast them and win this fight for the 21st century
Federal Newswire
Where can people go to follow your work and order your book once it comes out?
Dmitri Alperovitch
It's available on pre orders now on Amazon, local bookstores, and at World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century: Alperovitch, Dmitri, Graff, Garrett M.: 9781541704091: Amazon.com: Books
I also have a podcast called “Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado” at www.geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com. And, www.silverado.org is an organization I co-founded.
The China Desk podcast is hosted by Steve Yates, a former president of Radio Free Asia and White House national security advisor.
