Nations in the Indo-Pacific are facing sharper competition with China, causing them to increase defense budgets and weigh trade opportunities against their own security. For most of the region, the AUKUS alliance, consisting of Australia, the UK and the U.S., is the foundation for confidence-building around security. Tom Switzer at the Centre for Independent Studies says that in the case of Australia, its future depends on strengthening its alliance with the United States, ensuring AUKUS delivers on its promise, and reducing the nation’s dependence on China.
Switzer was a senior fellow at the Centre, and is a veteran journalist and commentator whose career has included time in Australia, the United States, and the UK. From 2014 to 2023 he presented Between the Lines on ABC Radio National. He previously held positions at The Spectator’s Australian edition, The Australian, the Australian Financial Review, and the American Enterprise Institute.
The experiences have led him to evolve in his thinking. “I subscribed to a neoconservative worldview, then I got mugged by reality, and I became a foreign-policy realist,” he says.
The evolution explains his perspective about China’s intentions in the Pacific. “Many of us assume that the more China engages with the world, the more benign it is abroad and the more liberal it is at home,” he says. But these notions eventually “get met by reality.”
He lists some of the realities. “Think of China’s escalating defense buildup, persistent cyber espionage, pumped-up nationalism, huge propaganda and disinformation campaigns, its takeover of Hong Kong, the consistent bullying of Taiwan, the aggressive buildup of military outposts in the South China Sea.”
Switzer argues that the US–Australia alliance still anchors Australia’s approach, even with growing debate over Washington’s commitment. “A lot of Australians think America is unreliable and too erratic, and we can’t trust America to keep in check a more aggressive China,” he says. But he says that “one of the few bipartisan issues in Washington is a tough containment strategy against China.” His view is that “America is here to stay in the long haul.”
China’s heavy-handed diplomacy during the pandemic reshaped Australian public opinion. “During the Covid crisis, China embarked on ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’ and tried to use economic coercion to make other countries kowtow,” Switzer says. That backlash gave way to Beijing’s charm offensive, yet Australia drew lines. “Beijing seeks to extend trade to include artificial intelligence, and Canberra rejects that invitation given the CCP’s record for malicious digital surveillance.”
He points to Australia’s decision on 5G as a marker. “We are the first country in the world to reject Huawei’s bid to be part of our 5G network… that sends a signal to other allies.”
AUKUS is at the center, according to Switzer. “Any watering down of AUKUS is seen by Beijing as a sign the U.S.-led security alliance goes wobbly,” he says. “AUKUS helps ensure safe and secure sea lines and airspace in international waters,” he says. “It does not provoke China,” but rather “it sends a message that many states in the region go to great lengths to check aggression.”
He sees tradeoffs that all nations face. “It is perfectly reasonable” for Australia to increase its defense spending from about 2% of GDP to 3%, Switzer says. “This government spends a lot on the welfare state… it needs to reorder its priorities, get its fiscal house in order so that we can spend the extra percentage on defense.”
The broader regional dilemma remains. “It’s like riding two horses simultaneously. The most important security partner is the United States; the most important trade partner is China.”
