Russia’s war against Ukraine is shaping Europe’s security, global food supplies, and U.S. policy debates. Conservative voters remain divided over how much America should support Kyiv and whether peace negotiations are realistic.
Larry Provost, Outreach Officer at Department of Veterans Affairs, argues that Ukraine’s defense is essential to American interests and that “Ukraine is the major open front in a larger worldwide struggle.”
Provost served in Afghanistan and Iraq before becoming a defense analyst and columnist for The Daily Caller, Newsmax, and Townhall. His family comes from Poland, and he and his wife adopted their son from Latvia. They also hosted a Ukrainian child twice and later helped evacuate her and her grandmother when Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
Those personal ties shape Provost’s view of Eastern Europe’s fears. He says the Baltic states and Poland “understand the implications of what happens if aggression in Ukraine by Russia is not met.” He describes years of “economic warfare” and “hybrid warfare” that Russia wages against its neighbors and says Latvia’s posture toward Moscow has shifted dramatically since the invasion, with higher defense spending and stronger support for Ukraine.
Provost views the recent attack on the Polish Lublin rail line—used by diplomats and aid workers traveling into Ukraine—as a sign of Russian weakness. He calls it “a move of desperation” and describes Russia as “very much a paper tiger” forced to rely on outdated equipment and poorly trained foreign troops. He argues that Russia lashes out because “they fear Western civilization, they fear NATO, they fear the MAGA movement.”
He frames the war as part of a broader confrontation involving “Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran,” which he describes as working together militarily. Peace, he says, cannot come through concessions. “Everybody wants peace, but we want a peace with victory,” he says. Even if Russia kept its occupied land, he believes Putin would still face “a vastly allied” and pro-NATO Ukraine, making any deal unattractive to Moscow.
Provost also presents a fiscal argument, drawn from his Newsmax column. “Shorter wars make a peace dividend,” he says, adding that letting Ukraine win outright is the most economical option for the United States. He notes Ukraine’s battlefield success. “Ukraine is actually on the offensive, putting Russia on the defensive,” with a kill ratio he places at “3 to 1…maybe even more.” He says that defensive wars historically favor the defender as time goes on.
Concerns about global food supplies is another issue. Provost calls Ukraine “the breadbasket for Europe” and praises its “incredible job” pushing back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. He challenges skeptics directly. “Do you believe that a Russian victory would be a good thing?” If not, he says, the only answer is ensuring Ukraine defeats Russia.
Provost also describes interviewing retired General David Petraeus, saying Petraeus confirmed both the high costs of a Ukrainian defeat and the possibility of Ukrainian victory. Hearing that from a commander who “turned it around in Iraq,” he says, is significant.
He says internal reforms in Ukraine give him more confidence. He points to Kyiv moving its main Christmas celebration to Dec. 25 and supporting an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church as major cultural steps toward the West. Investigations into corruption signal progress. “Years ago it never would have come to light.”
He argues that conservatives should see Ukraine through the lens of Reagan’s anti-Soviet stance. Reagan, he says, “certainly would have stood strong” with Ukraine, just as he did with the Solidarity movement in Poland. He rejects claims that Donald Trump is isolationist, calling him “a realist” who understands that helping Ukraine can advance American interests.
“We are the children of Reagan…Billy Graham…Pope John Paul II. We understand what a bully does and how we need to stand up to bullies.” He urges conservatives to consider Russia’s persecution of Christians, abducted Ukrainian children, and its alliances with hostile regimes. Giving Ukraine full moral and material support, he says, would strengthen Western civilization and “really be a victory that’s led by the MAGA movement.”
